*sigh* One of New York's urban legends is that if you want to know how a new play is going to do at the box office you talk to the doormen at Sardi's, the restaurant near some of the biggest Broadway theatres. There is an element of truth in it -- premiere+ dinner at Sardi's is a thing for the rich and famous, and doormen listen to conversations, and glean insight.
Our equivalent is the team shop owner, the auto/cab driver, etc and again, for good reason -- they listen to conversations, no one notices them, they are in a good position to know the prevailing mood.
That said, I think this piece stretches it. The thing with the categories I mentioned above is that the people they deal with come from a wide cross-section. Whereas here, these are practising Hindus. Second, they are able to afford boat rides -- which don't come all that cheap in those parts. That is too restricted a sample for you to peg an entire hypothesis on. Besides, the only proof adduced for their infallibility is the 1977 election -- and anyone who lived through that period could have told you the result of that election, you didn't need to find a boatman in Varanasi (I know -- I was a student politician in those days and even in Kerala, a Congress fortress, we could have told you it was going to be a bloodbath).
It sounded more like one of those “astrology” guru’s predictions which when predicting something new would cite a previous set of correct predictions that no one can verify. Again, it doesn’t mean that their prediction cannot turn out to be correct, but it will be more by chance than because of any “scientific” logic.
You may be interested in this, Prem: https://thewire.in/politics/if-sangam-pilgrims-are-bellwether-they-indicate-clear-majority-for-modi
This looks like it is coming from the other bubble but who knows!
*sigh* One of New York's urban legends is that if you want to know how a new play is going to do at the box office you talk to the doormen at Sardi's, the restaurant near some of the biggest Broadway theatres. There is an element of truth in it -- premiere+ dinner at Sardi's is a thing for the rich and famous, and doormen listen to conversations, and glean insight.
Our equivalent is the team shop owner, the auto/cab driver, etc and again, for good reason -- they listen to conversations, no one notices them, they are in a good position to know the prevailing mood.
That said, I think this piece stretches it. The thing with the categories I mentioned above is that the people they deal with come from a wide cross-section. Whereas here, these are practising Hindus. Second, they are able to afford boat rides -- which don't come all that cheap in those parts. That is too restricted a sample for you to peg an entire hypothesis on. Besides, the only proof adduced for their infallibility is the 1977 election -- and anyone who lived through that period could have told you the result of that election, you didn't need to find a boatman in Varanasi (I know -- I was a student politician in those days and even in Kerala, a Congress fortress, we could have told you it was going to be a bloodbath).
It sounded more like one of those “astrology” guru’s predictions which when predicting something new would cite a previous set of correct predictions that no one can verify. Again, it doesn’t mean that their prediction cannot turn out to be correct, but it will be more by chance than because of any “scientific” logic.
Precisely.
Sir, You’re a masterclass in journalism and this column is exhibit 1.
Thank you, Uday, that is very kind.