I’ve been getting this. A lot. On WhatsApp, in email, on phone. (Some add, with varying degrees of vehemence: “Is it because your predictions have been proved wrong?”)
Firstly, I am not in the prediction business; I am in the reporting business, and my posts on the seven phases are about what I have seen, heard, deduced and drawn inferences from.
Secondly, I don’t write about what I don’t understand — and with exit polls, this latest lot in particular, that is a LOT. (And that is without even going into the opacity of the methodology adopted by the various outfits.)
For instance, there are two main pollsters: Pradeep Gupta’s Axis My India, and Sanjay Kumar’s CSDS Lokniti. Both pollsters appeared on a panel discussion on India Today both before, and after, the sixth phase. And both were unanimous (in the face of some pushback from hosts Rajdeep Sardesai and Rahul Kanwal) that this was a tight election; that 400+ and 303+ were both chimeras and that the real bar was set at 272.
Gupta thought the BJP/NDA would fall just below that mark; Kumar thought the ruling regime would just about top that mark. (On Aaj Tak, Gupta told Anjana Om Kashyap that you can’t call this election till the last vote is cast).
These statements were made either side of the sixth phase. At that point, both pollsters had access to collated figures of the first five phases — which includes all of the south and all of the west. If, with that information in hand, they then predicated a tight race and in the exits predict the BJP/NDA doing well in both those regions, I don’t understand how.
What changed? And how could it change, since votes for those phases were locked and there is no scope for any new developments to overturn their earlier calls?
Social media is rife with posts pointing out laughable errors in various polls. For instance, one gives the Congress a possible 13 seats in Tamil Nadu, where it is contesting only 5. Another accounts for 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh, which only has 25 on offer. One has the BJP winning 6-8 seats in Himachal, a state that has only four seats. I could go on, but the point makes itself — even the better pollsters have put out predictions that are riddled with elementary errors, not to mention outcomes that fly in the face of both logic and comprehensive ground reports.
What is going on? Conspiracy theories abound — including about calls from the offices of the Home Minister and from the PMO asking that exit polls show the BJP/NDA close to, or crossing, the 400 mark. To what end? Again, I don’t know.
What I do know — have been able to gather — is that the Opposition is both confident, and cautious. Confident that it has done enough, will win enough, to overthrow Modi/Shah, and cautious about what it fears the regime will do to finagle the results. The last couple of days, therefore, have been marked by intense training sessions for counting agents on what to check to make sure the EVMs are kosher, what to look out for during the counting process, what to do if some irregularity surfaces…
Tomorrow is not going to be easy on anyone’s nerves — including yours. The hubub will start by 8 AM; for your own sake, I’d suggest that you don’t follow the noise machines till around 11.30 to 12. It takes that long for postal ballots, then two or three rounds of EVMs per constituency, to be counted, and for real trends to emerge.
Meanwhile, I’m taking the day off to do some thinking. There is life after elections, including for this newsletter — and I want to figure out what direction to take this in. Suggestions, via the comments section, hugely welcome.
My next post will be sometime around late afternoon of the fifth, by when much of the dust would have settled and we will know the contours of the 18th Lok Sabha. Till then, I’ll leave you with a two-part video series by Ravish Kumar, on exit polls:
Prem, whatever you choose to write, will read, learn, pause, reflect. All suggestions by everyone here are great but hey, right now the clock is going to strike 12 in 3 mins and it's a day that fills me trepidation and nervous excitement. Yes, either way the wind blows in this country, I want to cling on to hope, I want to feel proud of the invisible Indian who continues to fight the good fight. Right now though, yet another sleepless night beckons.
I'd echo those sentiments. Have been following Prem since 1996 - his days as a cricket columnist on Rediff. And always a sucker for whatever he writes. One quick thought which came to mind - not related to the state (India) or the elections - but more about Prem's writing is: his stuff on cricket and sports evokes romanticism while what he writes on the zeitgist / polity is much needed but at times painful to read (or rather get the feeling of despair as you concur with what you read but can't do much about it).
Thank you Prem for saying it like it is and also trying to bring a modicum of sanity to an otherwise nerve janglingly tense moment, almost dystopian, if it weren't for the fact that we're living witnesses to what's taking place. I have an insane (given the times we live in, that's the apt and fitting adjective) urge to scream, be a Female Wonderwoman and go out on the streets and be a rabble rouser, urging, nay, ordering people to overthrow. What does that make me? Female version of a man with a toothbrush moustache and short stature? That's the level of frustration, fear and fight I have jostling in me, all at the same time. Whither my country!
Funnily enough, the most detached I have been during election cycles in my 30-plus years of being a journalist is the day before counting. I never did see the point of wondering about something when I will have the answer a day later.
That said, you are by no means alone. Judging by mails and WA, the urge to scream out loud seems to be fairly universal -- and I suspect that underlying it is the vague, subconscious realisation that no matter which way this goes, the country is about to go through hell.
If the BJP wins, you will get a vengeful regime hell bent on wreaking all the havoc it can, and "doing big things" -- Modi's promise, which scares the shit out of me because they have no talent for governance and no clue about economic management.
If the Opposition wins (and this is true even if the BJP wins), they will be confronted with an economy in a tailspin, and very little time to turn the ship around -- while the RSS will get down to its core competence of lighting fires all around the country.
Not to dampen your spirits further, but there is no real "win" here. Maybe some temporary relief before reality bites -- then again, maybe not that even.
I did not realise this substack was "only for the elections"; I thought it was a replacement for your blog.
If you are looking for suggestions - I would love for you write about stuff that a concerned citizen should know but doesn't due to the noise. Be the calm voice of reason, if you will. Perhaps pick a state each week and roll from there
It IS my blog alternate. My comment was based on the fact that I have mostly focussed on the seven phases of polls. Just wondering aloud about themes, here on. Yours is a good suggestion.
Thank you for the coverage so far, Prem. Over the last few weeks, it has become my go-to reference for the elections. I haven't followed them with a magnifying glass, so reading your issues was super educative. Some massive dark clouds loom, and break into acid rain they probably will, but your newsletter makes a lurker like me better informed about the dirt in the atmosphere.
Also, you already know what I'd love for you to do with this newsletter once the election dust settles :)
Thanks much, Sarthak -- coming from an accomplished writer, that means a lot. And as I mentioned in that writing group, I owe a huge debt to Amit Varma for pushing me into doing this, despite my vacillation and doubts about how useful it could be given I am one guy with zero resources and no team backing me.
Yes, the weather forecast is scary, whichever way this goes. All this country needs is a chance, a window to focus on what matters. I hope it gets that opportunity.
As to the other, LOL, if you mean cricket there is little chance of that. It's a long time since I saw the point of spending 8-plus hours on a largely colourless team with the surround sound of accompanying hype.
I'll figure this out. There is time. Be well, take care.
And, no no, not just cricket. Like you rightly said, cricket's boring most days, haha. I meant sports in general. Quite the packed year with the Olympics, Euros, and Women's T20 World Cup. Just in case you fancy it, will be a lovely addition to your TMC pieces. :)
I, for one, got turned off cricket by BCCI who runs the sport like a mafia body and a propaganda arm of the BJP. Not to mention, among the current crop, I miss the integrity, humility and grace from the not so distant past. But cricket or not, I would look forward to Prem's posts even after all the dust has settled from the elections.
Thanks a lot Prem for writing this one and all the earlier pieces. You said that you would welcome input on what direction this newsletter might take. I have some suggestions that you may feel like considering. I feel that you should continue to
1. Focus on critical issues in the area of governance affecting us Indians and go behind the clutter and soundbites just as you already do. There are very few spaces where one can get an (fairly) objective view of what is happening and what it means. What you do is invaluable. These may ebb and surge depending on the time, but they will never go away.
2. Hold those in power, not just government but also other actors like judiciary, media, bureaucracy etc. accountable. I know that you may not have or feel that you do not have adequate expertise in all of these areas; what you have is a platform where you could bring views of experts through guest posts like you did with the security expert writing about EVM manipulation.
3. (this is purely selfish) Write about simpler things like test cricket; I personally miss your incisive commentary on proceedings.
Ignorance is endemic in India and yet hunger for reliable information is widespread too (Nirad Chaudhari and exceptions run into millions comes to mind). What you do is valuable service.
Last but not least, set up a financial contributory model that makes it easy for people who want to contribute to you. What you do is priceless. You deserve support so that it is possible for you to keep doing it.
Thanks so much for the thoughtful response. With ref your points:
#1. Yes, this is a direction I have pretty much decided on. I've had a few people write in on similar lines, and then I saw that Yogendra Yadav interview where he talks of why he returned to a field he had abandoned (I referred to that interview in my latest post), and I realised that this was a need -- for readers, hopefully, but for me, certainly. Writing in depth forces you to think, to research, to see the big picture, all of which is sadly lacking today. So, yes to this.
#2. Absolutely agree. Coincidentally, a good friend who is one of the top constitutional lawyers recently reached out to point out something. It served as a reminder to me that there are knowledgeable people out there, across pretty much every field. I did my election pieces by relying largely on people in the villages, in small towns; tapping into the vast reservoir of expertise and insight is a natural extension.
#3. I'll probably do Test cricket, at least series that matter. Not detailed analysis because I really cannot afford that degree of immersion and that length of time, but will figure out what I can do to add at least some value.
I live in a rented house, from salary to salary, and yes, every little bit extra helps. But equally I don't want to shut readers out. Let me see if I can find a model where those who want to can pay whatever they like, of their own volition, and those who don't, need not.
Thank you very much again, and have a good weekend
Thanks you Prem for your insights on Indian elections. For NRI, they represented boots on ground kind of fact check.
Since you mentioned about suggestions on new topics, I personally would love to read about Indian Cricket. I recall your articles from old rediff days and they were delight for purist. I won't mind even match report for an odd match or two for your fans.
Naidu, by all accounts, is asking for the moon with his name on it. And Nitish is yet to be heard from, at least, no one I spoke to could tell me what he has asked for. We'll see. But yeah, Modi cannot afford to give up Home and Finance, for sure. And Defense, because too many deals depend on his hold on it.
Perhaps not the cabinet seats but the MOS especially as nominally IIRC the investigative arms are under the policy oversight of the MOS's . They will need to be brought under rein if Nitish and Naidu are to survive.
Perhaps someone who is versed in Gov Of India rules of business can enlighten us!
How the government functions is a book. And even within the guidelines, it often depends on the kind of minister at the top. So these questions don't admit of logical answers -- but there is this: once you are in government, in a ministerial post at either level, you have ways to access what is going on. That is the big problem for any outfit, BJP or otherwise, that wants to rule by fiat, that you can only do that if you control the entire machinery and make it a watertight shop. Modi's governance style is precisely that -- even his own ministers didn't know what he was up to, and there was nothing anyone can do about it (unless you opt to quit, like Harsimrat Kaur did over the farm laws). In a coalition government where you are dependent on allies, that style goes out the window, and that is the single biggest reason why there is such gloom in the BJP camp.
Also, building consensus is an art. Authoritarians don't know how to do that -- particularly one who has ruled by fiat for over 22 years, including his state and Central tenures both. If you could offer your allies the mantle of invincibility, maybe -- but now you don't even have that. So.
Your writing is an inspiration. I fear we will need even more focus after the elections. Going by the horrible campaign, there will be more blatant killing of democracy attempted. I liked Sridhar's idea of picking one state each week.
I'll figure out what best I can do, Vineet. I'm just a single guy, without resources AND doing a day job. A state a week will be impossible - but I'll find good use cases asap. Cheers
Thanks Prem. In addition to what you said in this post, another thing that makes the exit polls a bit suspicious is the unbelievable convergence on the seats predicted (350-360+ for NDA) across the polls. Even in smaller scale state elections, it’s quite rare that so many polls converge to such an extent. Either the actual verdict is so straightforward or there is something fishy about the polls. Fortunately, we will find out real soon!
Regarding suggestions for the future of this blog, many possibilities. We need spaces where we have opportunities to engage with people who don’t agree with us so that we both can learn from each other through civilised debate. It is not easy in these days of social media driven rage, thus requires patience, restraint, and good moderation. This space could attempt to be that, among other things. That’s a big burden though I guess.
I got a bit educated on entire political science: (i) how to win elections when the electorate don't vote for you; (ii) how to go scot free after overseeing the murder of a few thousand people. Innovative tools, new systems. (Education that is of any use to me.)
Prem, whatever you choose to write, will read, learn, pause, reflect. All suggestions by everyone here are great but hey, right now the clock is going to strike 12 in 3 mins and it's a day that fills me trepidation and nervous excitement. Yes, either way the wind blows in this country, I want to cling on to hope, I want to feel proud of the invisible Indian who continues to fight the good fight. Right now though, yet another sleepless night beckons.
I'd echo those sentiments. Have been following Prem since 1996 - his days as a cricket columnist on Rediff. And always a sucker for whatever he writes. One quick thought which came to mind - not related to the state (India) or the elections - but more about Prem's writing is: his stuff on cricket and sports evokes romanticism while what he writes on the zeitgist / polity is much needed but at times painful to read (or rather get the feeling of despair as you concur with what you read but can't do much about it).
Thank you Prem for saying it like it is and also trying to bring a modicum of sanity to an otherwise nerve janglingly tense moment, almost dystopian, if it weren't for the fact that we're living witnesses to what's taking place. I have an insane (given the times we live in, that's the apt and fitting adjective) urge to scream, be a Female Wonderwoman and go out on the streets and be a rabble rouser, urging, nay, ordering people to overthrow. What does that make me? Female version of a man with a toothbrush moustache and short stature? That's the level of frustration, fear and fight I have jostling in me, all at the same time. Whither my country!
Funnily enough, the most detached I have been during election cycles in my 30-plus years of being a journalist is the day before counting. I never did see the point of wondering about something when I will have the answer a day later.
That said, you are by no means alone. Judging by mails and WA, the urge to scream out loud seems to be fairly universal -- and I suspect that underlying it is the vague, subconscious realisation that no matter which way this goes, the country is about to go through hell.
If the BJP wins, you will get a vengeful regime hell bent on wreaking all the havoc it can, and "doing big things" -- Modi's promise, which scares the shit out of me because they have no talent for governance and no clue about economic management.
If the Opposition wins (and this is true even if the BJP wins), they will be confronted with an economy in a tailspin, and very little time to turn the ship around -- while the RSS will get down to its core competence of lighting fires all around the country.
Not to dampen your spirits further, but there is no real "win" here. Maybe some temporary relief before reality bites -- then again, maybe not that even.
Sorry if I added to your angst. Be well.
I did not realise this substack was "only for the elections"; I thought it was a replacement for your blog.
If you are looking for suggestions - I would love for you write about stuff that a concerned citizen should know but doesn't due to the noise. Be the calm voice of reason, if you will. Perhaps pick a state each week and roll from there
It IS my blog alternate. My comment was based on the fact that I have mostly focussed on the seven phases of polls. Just wondering aloud about themes, here on. Yours is a good suggestion.
Thank you for the coverage so far, Prem. Over the last few weeks, it has become my go-to reference for the elections. I haven't followed them with a magnifying glass, so reading your issues was super educative. Some massive dark clouds loom, and break into acid rain they probably will, but your newsletter makes a lurker like me better informed about the dirt in the atmosphere.
Also, you already know what I'd love for you to do with this newsletter once the election dust settles :)
Thanks much, Sarthak -- coming from an accomplished writer, that means a lot. And as I mentioned in that writing group, I owe a huge debt to Amit Varma for pushing me into doing this, despite my vacillation and doubts about how useful it could be given I am one guy with zero resources and no team backing me.
Yes, the weather forecast is scary, whichever way this goes. All this country needs is a chance, a window to focus on what matters. I hope it gets that opportunity.
As to the other, LOL, if you mean cricket there is little chance of that. It's a long time since I saw the point of spending 8-plus hours on a largely colourless team with the surround sound of accompanying hype.
I'll figure this out. There is time. Be well, take care.
The community is indeed a godsend.
And, no no, not just cricket. Like you rightly said, cricket's boring most days, haha. I meant sports in general. Quite the packed year with the Olympics, Euros, and Women's T20 World Cup. Just in case you fancy it, will be a lovely addition to your TMC pieces. :)
I, for one, got turned off cricket by BCCI who runs the sport like a mafia body and a propaganda arm of the BJP. Not to mention, among the current crop, I miss the integrity, humility and grace from the not so distant past. But cricket or not, I would look forward to Prem's posts even after all the dust has settled from the elections.
Thanks a lot Prem for writing this one and all the earlier pieces. You said that you would welcome input on what direction this newsletter might take. I have some suggestions that you may feel like considering. I feel that you should continue to
1. Focus on critical issues in the area of governance affecting us Indians and go behind the clutter and soundbites just as you already do. There are very few spaces where one can get an (fairly) objective view of what is happening and what it means. What you do is invaluable. These may ebb and surge depending on the time, but they will never go away.
2. Hold those in power, not just government but also other actors like judiciary, media, bureaucracy etc. accountable. I know that you may not have or feel that you do not have adequate expertise in all of these areas; what you have is a platform where you could bring views of experts through guest posts like you did with the security expert writing about EVM manipulation.
3. (this is purely selfish) Write about simpler things like test cricket; I personally miss your incisive commentary on proceedings.
Ignorance is endemic in India and yet hunger for reliable information is widespread too (Nirad Chaudhari and exceptions run into millions comes to mind). What you do is valuable service.
Last but not least, set up a financial contributory model that makes it easy for people who want to contribute to you. What you do is priceless. You deserve support so that it is possible for you to keep doing it.
Thanks so much for the thoughtful response. With ref your points:
#1. Yes, this is a direction I have pretty much decided on. I've had a few people write in on similar lines, and then I saw that Yogendra Yadav interview where he talks of why he returned to a field he had abandoned (I referred to that interview in my latest post), and I realised that this was a need -- for readers, hopefully, but for me, certainly. Writing in depth forces you to think, to research, to see the big picture, all of which is sadly lacking today. So, yes to this.
#2. Absolutely agree. Coincidentally, a good friend who is one of the top constitutional lawyers recently reached out to point out something. It served as a reminder to me that there are knowledgeable people out there, across pretty much every field. I did my election pieces by relying largely on people in the villages, in small towns; tapping into the vast reservoir of expertise and insight is a natural extension.
#3. I'll probably do Test cricket, at least series that matter. Not detailed analysis because I really cannot afford that degree of immersion and that length of time, but will figure out what I can do to add at least some value.
I live in a rented house, from salary to salary, and yes, every little bit extra helps. But equally I don't want to shut readers out. Let me see if I can find a model where those who want to can pay whatever they like, of their own volition, and those who don't, need not.
Thank you very much again, and have a good weekend
Thanks you Prem for your insights on Indian elections. For NRI, they represented boots on ground kind of fact check.
Since you mentioned about suggestions on new topics, I personally would love to read about Indian Cricket. I recall your articles from old rediff days and they were delight for purist. I won't mind even match report for an odd match or two for your fans.
My Prediction:
Speaker , Home and (Perhaps) Finance will be demanded by Nitish and Naidu to continue in alliance.
Modi likely not to budge on Home Minister for reasons of prestige but the MOS ( internal security ) will likely be from Naidu.
Naidu, by all accounts, is asking for the moon with his name on it. And Nitish is yet to be heard from, at least, no one I spoke to could tell me what he has asked for. We'll see. But yeah, Modi cannot afford to give up Home and Finance, for sure. And Defense, because too many deals depend on his hold on it.
Read somewhere that Nitish is not asking for anything. That way he keeps his options open for another volte face :-)
Perhaps not the cabinet seats but the MOS especially as nominally IIRC the investigative arms are under the policy oversight of the MOS's . They will need to be brought under rein if Nitish and Naidu are to survive.
Perhaps someone who is versed in Gov Of India rules of business can enlighten us!
How the government functions is a book. And even within the guidelines, it often depends on the kind of minister at the top. So these questions don't admit of logical answers -- but there is this: once you are in government, in a ministerial post at either level, you have ways to access what is going on. That is the big problem for any outfit, BJP or otherwise, that wants to rule by fiat, that you can only do that if you control the entire machinery and make it a watertight shop. Modi's governance style is precisely that -- even his own ministers didn't know what he was up to, and there was nothing anyone can do about it (unless you opt to quit, like Harsimrat Kaur did over the farm laws). In a coalition government where you are dependent on allies, that style goes out the window, and that is the single biggest reason why there is such gloom in the BJP camp.
Also, building consensus is an art. Authoritarians don't know how to do that -- particularly one who has ruled by fiat for over 22 years, including his state and Central tenures both. If you could offer your allies the mantle of invincibility, maybe -- but now you don't even have that. So.
Prem - Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us all. There is hope and I wish best of luck to us all as the results start rolling out.
Your writing is an inspiration. I fear we will need even more focus after the elections. Going by the horrible campaign, there will be more blatant killing of democracy attempted. I liked Sridhar's idea of picking one state each week.
I'll figure out what best I can do, Vineet. I'm just a single guy, without resources AND doing a day job. A state a week will be impossible - but I'll find good use cases asap. Cheers
Thanks Prem. In addition to what you said in this post, another thing that makes the exit polls a bit suspicious is the unbelievable convergence on the seats predicted (350-360+ for NDA) across the polls. Even in smaller scale state elections, it’s quite rare that so many polls converge to such an extent. Either the actual verdict is so straightforward or there is something fishy about the polls. Fortunately, we will find out real soon!
Regarding suggestions for the future of this blog, many possibilities. We need spaces where we have opportunities to engage with people who don’t agree with us so that we both can learn from each other through civilised debate. It is not easy in these days of social media driven rage, thus requires patience, restraint, and good moderation. This space could attempt to be that, among other things. That’s a big burden though I guess.
I got a bit educated on entire political science: (i) how to win elections when the electorate don't vote for you; (ii) how to go scot free after overseeing the murder of a few thousand people. Innovative tools, new systems. (Education that is of any use to me.)
Well, stick with this lot and you will learn a lot more things you shouldn't be learning. :-) Take care
Congress contesting nine seats in TN and the lone Puduchery
Yeah, that was my point.