I've been waiting for new posts from Prem and was happy to see the update in my inbox this morning, thanks! Oh boy, what a drama we are witnessing. I can only hope the finale will be worth the wait!
I have watched that clip of the insane rant about the two billionaires sending "tempoloads" of black money to Congress multiple times - it's priceless entertainment and also a testament to this guy's pathological narcissism when he had to finally start clapping on his own in the middle of "daal me kuchh Kala hai..." diatribe, almost in a desperate attempt to eke out a few claps from the public that looked mostly bored (maybe also the language barrier, not sure how many know Hindi well in that part) - pathetic. Dr. Ashis Nandy's diagnosis of Modi many years back as a narcissistic sociopath has come into sharper relief like never before. And as Prem has mentioned in a reply to a comment I also had a suspicion that the big businesses maybe are trying to hedge their bets and BJP cannot have missed picking up some of the signals so there may be little more to it than just an unhinged rant.
As for keeping BJP well below 272, I have faint shoots of hope springing deep down but like England football fans I'm always pessimistic, without even having to worry about pliant EC, EVM skullduggery and so on...
:-) I also have to work for my daily bread, boss. Writing this kind of thing takes time and effort, so much as I wanted to do this on a daily basis, about thrice a week is the best I can manage.
Since narcissism is on the table -- and yes, Ashis Nandy was spot on, and remarkably prescient when you consider how long ago he wrote this -- there is this:
Thanks Prem. I was not complaining at all, I'm truly thankful to be able to read such in-depth, insightful analysis and it's a real pleasure to be able to enjoy your posts again after many years of reading your cricket articles on rediff so the wait is one of anticipation rather than impatience!
I should also salute the courage of you and quite a few others that are not afraid to speak truth to this virulently vindictive regime and risk paying potentially a very high price.
He has no idea what the pulse of the people says, he never did. That is why I went into the history of the previous two elections -- he sets the narrative based on what he wants, not what the people want.
He listens to no one, that has always been a problem with him. And he is vengeful, so it is never a good idea to tell him he is wrong. So he has ended up with a bunch of yes men who tell him his every step is brilliant, further disconnecting him from what is happening on the ground.
Gujarat is one state where my ground level sources -- I am talking of ordinary folks, not political people -- is less than optimum. Wherever I go, I collect names and numbers of such people, and call them to find out what is happening on the ground. I haven't been to Gujarat in ages, so I am relatively clueless. The little I know, it seems possible that the BJP might drop a seat or three. The caveat here is, if the Kshatriyas are serious, and if the women are moving away as they are in other parts of the country, then it could cause serious harm.
Like I explained at length in the post, they worked because they were narratives. Right or wrong doesn't matter -- there was a narrative people could buy into. Now there is no narrative -- he says one thing today, says the opposite tomorrow, and none of it matters to the people. Development in 2014, ok. Patriotism in 2019, ok. What is the one word here? Congress? How is that going to work?
Rajasthan is going quite nicely for the Congress -- they will bleed some BJP seats, which is all they need to do. UP, thus far, the SP-Congress coalition seems to be working in those areas where the SP was strong anyway, and had a base. Too early for any hard call, though -- that said, the BJP seems to sense trouble, vide the recent news report about the party asking Mayawati to help by adjusting candidates.
The problem with narcissists -- okay, one problem with narcissists -- is that they are not capable of handling setbacks. A sense of omnipotence is integral to narcissism -- dent that, and the sufferer goes apeshit. That is what is happening now, judging by the apeshit insanity of what he is going around saying.
Saw, and saved, that story conveniently put out by the PM's panel. It reads nicely with at least two earlier stories about how the Muslim rate of growth -- children per family -- has shrunk the fastest among all communities over the last decade. What was that line about figures don't lie, but liars can figure?
Gujarat seats are in play -- the problem is that the Kshatriyas apart, the disaffected elements are being very quiet and non-vocal, so it is hard to judge just how many. That said, the Opposition's goal needs to be to make dents, a seat here, a seat there... the BJP's operating margin is 32, the difference between 303 and 272, so every seat lost is painful, particularly if it comes in places you have swept (Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan etc).
The funny thing about what Modi said today regarding his two Aces is that big business HAS sensed the wind, and at least some of them are funnelling money to the Congress now, in the wake of the first phase. Not serious money at BJP-like scale, just a comparative trickle, but enough to keep the party afloat and capable of sustaining for the next four phases. When I saw that rant by Modi that is the first thought I had -- that maybe he had heard something, and was so pissed that he blurted stuff out. (Ambani, in any case, has always kept both sides sweet -- it is their SOP from Dhirubhai's time onwards).
Haha, I started this newsletter with that post about why 400-paar was never going to happen. (At least, not unless you rig on a scale that makes Putin look like a kindergarten kid).
Prem - Thanks again for an excellent write-up. Assuming there is no hanky-panky with the EVMs, it is clear that the BJP and the NDA will get less votes and thereby seats in this election. I am dreading the misinformation that will likely follow on social media by their IT cell. I wont be surprised if they start blaming fellow Indians for not being grateful for Saheb's benevolence, etc. which I'm afraid will lead to violence, reduction of basic rights because of the vengeful nature of Modi
I thought that based on the election outcomes of the last few cycles the exit polls were not particularly helpful., based on the credibility of the pollsters.
The chanakyas of the ruling party, I would think, will be more interested in beating the competition at the finish line (at this point in time) so that they don't have to answer to the mischief they have indulged in, both in private and with the system.
One way to secure victory is to control the counting, and their algorithm, as shown by the professor from Ashoka University, was to fiddle with the closely fought competitions. EVM control still seems to be the name of the game for this party.
Loved reading this. I don't think the NDA is gonna touch the 272 mark and will be left stranded around 240s. This looks a very unenthusiastic election, sharply different from 2019 and 2014.
Prem, Have been following you for years but, this is wish casting on an epic scale. How many constituencies have you visited? Its a bad idea generally to speak to 2-3 people in a state to gauge its mood. What were your predictions in 2019 before results? I distinctly remember you stating Modi will be a one term PM. I think you are in a bubble, reading and seeing only that you wish to. Please get out of your bubble
Do link me to that statement you distinctly remember, please?
As for what bubble I live in, fair enough. I don't hold a gun to anyone's head asking them to take what I write as gospel. No compulsion on you to read, nor on me to write what you'd like me to.
I think it is important for us all to break our bubble, if we want to have a better India. No compulsion on me or you to do so, but a if we just read people who tell us what we want, can we really know what is going on in the country?
I know you did not ask for it, but see this short video of Pradeep Gupta on why Modi wins so consistently , he is someone who regularly goes on the ground and has a remarkable track record when it comes to elections and understanding voters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlLztzTNYFs
Yes. This was based on what the situation on the ground was, and what I did not take into account is that the hyped up patriotism trumped issues that were causing considerable pain. And yes, I know Pradeep Gupta and in fact I have seen this video, and saved it to my Roam. (This speaks to your assumption that I live in a bubble -- actually, I follow, save, and refer to, both sides of the political spectrum). The video is from October 2023 -- if you had asked me then, I'd have said the BJP will get a third term. Now? I am saying the opposite. Much has changed between then and now.
In any case, each is an opinion, a conclusion based on facts, assumptions, and an individual's own thinking. As I said earlier, this newsletter is where I honestly write what I think; I could be right, I could be wrong, but I have, and will continue to, write what I honestly think.
BTW, Pradip is one of the very few pollsters I take seriously, not because of accuracy -- I know how difficult poll forecasts can be -- but because of his rigour in methodology, which I am familiar with. That said -- my #polls folder in Roam throws up predictions from last year, including that the Congress has the edge in Chattisgarh and that it will be very tight in Rajasthan. Neither of which stood the test of time. He said Karnataka would be a huge win for Congress -- and so did I, the difference being I am an individual and he has an entire outfit at his command.
Not dissing him. Merely pointing out that in the end, each person calls it as he or she sees it, and each person runs the risk of being proved wrong. Unlike a lot of pollsters, Pradip is not for sale -- and, even though I say it myself, neither am I.
No need for justifying your 2019 prediction, we all have got it wrong at times.
I know the video is old but the points he makes are very relevant. You must read PG’s book “How India Votes” to paraphrase what he writes there “it is finally delivery to the voter that matters in all elections.” Also see his interview with Barkha Dutt. His comments recently on aajtak (after phase 2) that he doesn’t foresee a dramatic upheaval should make all forecasters think. Yes, he has got elections wrong, he even misread West Bengal. But overall he is probably the only poll forecaster in India to take seriously.
I don’t think the situation has changed dramatically from October. In fact, I was worried for the BJP in October, they had lost Karnataka and could have lost 2 of the 3 (Rajasthan/MP/Chhattisgarh). They won all 3. There is a positive undercurrent following the Ram Temple inauguration. The drop in voter turnout could work both ways. We don’t know if BJP voters are not turning out or opposition voters are staying home as they see a non-contest. Gujarat turnout is low as opposition is demotivated. Karnataka and Bengal have high turnout as workers for both parties are mobilizing their base. BJP will lose some seats in MAH/KAR, but they will do better than expected in Bengal/UP/. I see them crossing 272 comfortably.
Good to know you consume media from all sides. Appreciate your honesty, felt it in before 2019 results and feel this time as well you are reading the election all wrong once again, so wrote a note as have always enjoyed reading you. Wish you the best.
I've been waiting for new posts from Prem and was happy to see the update in my inbox this morning, thanks! Oh boy, what a drama we are witnessing. I can only hope the finale will be worth the wait!
I have watched that clip of the insane rant about the two billionaires sending "tempoloads" of black money to Congress multiple times - it's priceless entertainment and also a testament to this guy's pathological narcissism when he had to finally start clapping on his own in the middle of "daal me kuchh Kala hai..." diatribe, almost in a desperate attempt to eke out a few claps from the public that looked mostly bored (maybe also the language barrier, not sure how many know Hindi well in that part) - pathetic. Dr. Ashis Nandy's diagnosis of Modi many years back as a narcissistic sociopath has come into sharper relief like never before. And as Prem has mentioned in a reply to a comment I also had a suspicion that the big businesses maybe are trying to hedge their bets and BJP cannot have missed picking up some of the signals so there may be little more to it than just an unhinged rant.
As for keeping BJP well below 272, I have faint shoots of hope springing deep down but like England football fans I'm always pessimistic, without even having to worry about pliant EC, EVM skullduggery and so on...
Thanks Prem!
:-) I also have to work for my daily bread, boss. Writing this kind of thing takes time and effort, so much as I wanted to do this on a daily basis, about thrice a week is the best I can manage.
Since narcissism is on the table -- and yes, Ashis Nandy was spot on, and remarkably prescient when you consider how long ago he wrote this -- there is this:
https://prempanicker.wordpress.com/2023/03/02/pawan-khera-and-the-politics-of-narcissism/
Thanks Prem. I was not complaining at all, I'm truly thankful to be able to read such in-depth, insightful analysis and it's a real pleasure to be able to enjoy your posts again after many years of reading your cricket articles on rediff so the wait is one of anticipation rather than impatience!
I should also salute the courage of you and quite a few others that are not afraid to speak truth to this virulently vindictive regime and risk paying potentially a very high price.
Thanks again!
PM Modi has been making bizarre statements like locking the Ram Temple, the A's giving cash loaded in Tempos to Congress.
He has been making multiple despicable statements like snatching mangalsutra, love jihad, etc etc.
He is doing all this based on pulse of the voters ?
Does he have people prompting him on these or does he decide himself ?
Also, will be good to know from ground reports about Gujarat - will it be a full sweep or will BJP drop a few seats ?
He has no idea what the pulse of the people says, he never did. That is why I went into the history of the previous two elections -- he sets the narrative based on what he wants, not what the people want.
He listens to no one, that has always been a problem with him. And he is vengeful, so it is never a good idea to tell him he is wrong. So he has ended up with a bunch of yes men who tell him his every step is brilliant, further disconnecting him from what is happening on the ground.
Gujarat is one state where my ground level sources -- I am talking of ordinary folks, not political people -- is less than optimum. Wherever I go, I collect names and numbers of such people, and call them to find out what is happening on the ground. I haven't been to Gujarat in ages, so I am relatively clueless. The little I know, it seems possible that the BJP might drop a seat or three. The caveat here is, if the Kshatriyas are serious, and if the women are moving away as they are in other parts of the country, then it could cause serious harm.
His narratives seem to have worked in the last 2 elections.
So they may work again this time too ?
Will be good to know about ground reports from Rajasthan where the elections are over, and in UP where elections for about 25 constituencies are done.
Like I explained at length in the post, they worked because they were narratives. Right or wrong doesn't matter -- there was a narrative people could buy into. Now there is no narrative -- he says one thing today, says the opposite tomorrow, and none of it matters to the people. Development in 2014, ok. Patriotism in 2019, ok. What is the one word here? Congress? How is that going to work?
Rajasthan is going quite nicely for the Congress -- they will bleed some BJP seats, which is all they need to do. UP, thus far, the SP-Congress coalition seems to be working in those areas where the SP was strong anyway, and had a base. Too early for any hard call, though -- that said, the BJP seems to sense trouble, vide the recent news report about the party asking Mayawati to help by adjusting candidates.
Interesting take, Prem. It’s clear that the narrative is incoherent, to be super generous. Today Cong is giving away Mangalsutras to Muslims, the next day Congress cheated Muslims by ignoring their development. Vote jihad one day, A&A pouring money into Congress the other day. Crazy shit! Simultaneously this: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/majority-population-minority-grew-hindus-muslims-india-shrunk-eac-pm-study-pakistan-south-asia-bangladesh-2536623-2024-05-08
On Gujarat, a local guy tied to BJP’s ecosystem thinks 3 seats are at play for the opposition. On the other hand, this story from Supriya on the skewness in resources: https://scroll.in/article/1067473/the-bjp-wants-an-opposition-free-gujarat-but-some-are-putting-up-a-fight
The problem with narcissists -- okay, one problem with narcissists -- is that they are not capable of handling setbacks. A sense of omnipotence is integral to narcissism -- dent that, and the sufferer goes apeshit. That is what is happening now, judging by the apeshit insanity of what he is going around saying.
Saw, and saved, that story conveniently put out by the PM's panel. It reads nicely with at least two earlier stories about how the Muslim rate of growth -- children per family -- has shrunk the fastest among all communities over the last decade. What was that line about figures don't lie, but liars can figure?
Gujarat seats are in play -- the problem is that the Kshatriyas apart, the disaffected elements are being very quiet and non-vocal, so it is hard to judge just how many. That said, the Opposition's goal needs to be to make dents, a seat here, a seat there... the BJP's operating margin is 32, the difference between 303 and 272, so every seat lost is painful, particularly if it comes in places you have swept (Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan etc).
The funny thing about what Modi said today regarding his two Aces is that big business HAS sensed the wind, and at least some of them are funnelling money to the Congress now, in the wake of the first phase. Not serious money at BJP-like scale, just a comparative trickle, but enough to keep the party afloat and capable of sustaining for the next four phases. When I saw that rant by Modi that is the first thought I had -- that maybe he had heard something, and was so pissed that he blurted stuff out. (Ambani, in any case, has always kept both sides sweet -- it is their SOP from Dhirubhai's time onwards).
The only problem is that you are raising expectations when we all reconciled for 400 paar🙂
Haha, I started this newsletter with that post about why 400-paar was never going to happen. (At least, not unless you rig on a scale that makes Putin look like a kindergarten kid).
Prem - Thanks again for an excellent write-up. Assuming there is no hanky-panky with the EVMs, it is clear that the BJP and the NDA will get less votes and thereby seats in this election. I am dreading the misinformation that will likely follow on social media by their IT cell. I wont be surprised if they start blaming fellow Indians for not being grateful for Saheb's benevolence, etc. which I'm afraid will lead to violence, reduction of basic rights because of the vengeful nature of Modi
I thought that based on the election outcomes of the last few cycles the exit polls were not particularly helpful., based on the credibility of the pollsters.
The chanakyas of the ruling party, I would think, will be more interested in beating the competition at the finish line (at this point in time) so that they don't have to answer to the mischief they have indulged in, both in private and with the system.
One way to secure victory is to control the counting, and their algorithm, as shown by the professor from Ashoka University, was to fiddle with the closely fought competitions. EVM control still seems to be the name of the game for this party.
Loved reading this. I don't think the NDA is gonna touch the 272 mark and will be left stranded around 240s. This looks a very unenthusiastic election, sharply different from 2019 and 2014.
Now we know why you are named "Panicker" Quite an apt name mister.
So you learned something new today? Cool. Thank me later.
Prem, Have been following you for years but, this is wish casting on an epic scale. How many constituencies have you visited? Its a bad idea generally to speak to 2-3 people in a state to gauge its mood. What were your predictions in 2019 before results? I distinctly remember you stating Modi will be a one term PM. I think you are in a bubble, reading and seeing only that you wish to. Please get out of your bubble
Do link me to that statement you distinctly remember, please?
As for what bubble I live in, fair enough. I don't hold a gun to anyone's head asking them to take what I write as gospel. No compulsion on you to read, nor on me to write what you'd like me to.
Be well.
You asked for it https://twitter.com/prempanicker/status/1131202628669460480
I think it is important for us all to break our bubble, if we want to have a better India. No compulsion on me or you to do so, but a if we just read people who tell us what we want, can we really know what is going on in the country?
I know you did not ask for it, but see this short video of Pradeep Gupta on why Modi wins so consistently , he is someone who regularly goes on the ground and has a remarkable track record when it comes to elections and understanding voters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlLztzTNYFs
Yes. This was based on what the situation on the ground was, and what I did not take into account is that the hyped up patriotism trumped issues that were causing considerable pain. And yes, I know Pradeep Gupta and in fact I have seen this video, and saved it to my Roam. (This speaks to your assumption that I live in a bubble -- actually, I follow, save, and refer to, both sides of the political spectrum). The video is from October 2023 -- if you had asked me then, I'd have said the BJP will get a third term. Now? I am saying the opposite. Much has changed between then and now.
In any case, each is an opinion, a conclusion based on facts, assumptions, and an individual's own thinking. As I said earlier, this newsletter is where I honestly write what I think; I could be right, I could be wrong, but I have, and will continue to, write what I honestly think.
Take care.
BTW, Pradip is one of the very few pollsters I take seriously, not because of accuracy -- I know how difficult poll forecasts can be -- but because of his rigour in methodology, which I am familiar with. That said -- my #polls folder in Roam throws up predictions from last year, including that the Congress has the edge in Chattisgarh and that it will be very tight in Rajasthan. Neither of which stood the test of time. He said Karnataka would be a huge win for Congress -- and so did I, the difference being I am an individual and he has an entire outfit at his command.
Not dissing him. Merely pointing out that in the end, each person calls it as he or she sees it, and each person runs the risk of being proved wrong. Unlike a lot of pollsters, Pradip is not for sale -- and, even though I say it myself, neither am I.
Hi Prem,
No need for justifying your 2019 prediction, we all have got it wrong at times.
I know the video is old but the points he makes are very relevant. You must read PG’s book “How India Votes” to paraphrase what he writes there “it is finally delivery to the voter that matters in all elections.” Also see his interview with Barkha Dutt. His comments recently on aajtak (after phase 2) that he doesn’t foresee a dramatic upheaval should make all forecasters think. Yes, he has got elections wrong, he even misread West Bengal. But overall he is probably the only poll forecaster in India to take seriously.
I don’t think the situation has changed dramatically from October. In fact, I was worried for the BJP in October, they had lost Karnataka and could have lost 2 of the 3 (Rajasthan/MP/Chhattisgarh). They won all 3. There is a positive undercurrent following the Ram Temple inauguration. The drop in voter turnout could work both ways. We don’t know if BJP voters are not turning out or opposition voters are staying home as they see a non-contest. Gujarat turnout is low as opposition is demotivated. Karnataka and Bengal have high turnout as workers for both parties are mobilizing their base. BJP will lose some seats in MAH/KAR, but they will do better than expected in Bengal/UP/. I see them crossing 272 comfortably.
Good to know you consume media from all sides. Appreciate your honesty, felt it in before 2019 results and feel this time as well you are reading the election all wrong once again, so wrote a note as have always enjoyed reading you. Wish you the best.