I’m intrigued by the following: How the polling numbers was favoring Trump, and still is being reported to be on balance within the margin of error, given the facts – about half being female voters, the direction of the red party has been aggressively taking since the Rove v Wade was reversed; a public health crisis was handled in terms of control and handling of the patients; the integrity and the ability of the candidates at the ticket.
Most of the excitement of the current change in the presidential race is from the younger, educated, and perhaps partisan crowd, but with the numbers you have mentioned about the followers in social media I was expecting to see a substantial change in the poll numbers, but all the political pundits are going about explaining a 2 to 4 percent change. So, I really don’t know what to make of those numbers and poll predictions in general.
What you are likely missing is the "before" part of the before/after picture. Consider this: Eight (or is it nine?) days before Biden pulled out and Harris stepped up, Trump was leading by between 6-8 percentage points across the board -- including in the battleground states. In the space of a week, he is now in a statistical tie with Harris -- which is to say, his numbers are going down and hers are going up, and pretty damn fast when you consider the timeline. Keep in mind that in the US, most polling is done through sampling the "likely voters" segment, so this change in mood is not influenced by teen Swifties. Also in the last week, there's been a dramatic shift among Black voters both male and female and, interestingly, even white voters.
From here, the likely course is that the race will stay fairly tight, with either candidate leading in particular states but within the margin of error -- till the DNC convention in mid-August, which I suspect is when Harris will likely pull away. Conventions generally give a bump to the hosting party, but this year's RNC convention did not move the needle to any great degree, and was largely underwhelming -- whereas the DNC version is likely to be a blowout, with headline stars from both the political and entertainment fields dominating.
Another point at which the needle moves (though you can't say how much just yet) is when the VP pick is announced and the ticket takes shape.
I agree that rising crime, Roe, etc should have been negatives for Trump and a thriving economy and unprecedented employment numbers a plus for Biden, but honestly, he didn't seem to be able to hold it together in public, particularly in that awful debate. It could possibly have been early stages of the Covid relapse that put him down soon after -- but what the public saw was a man who seemed totally lost in the labyrinths of his own mind, and that is not particularly reassuring. So you have the hardcore MAGA vote staying solid, the Democrats feeling blah and unenthused, and the swing voter veering gently right because they couldn't see Biden surviving four years in office.
That whole scenario has changed. Now Trump is the old, dithering guy. The MAGA vote will remain locked in mostly -- but the Democrats are enthused, and the swing voters now have a different choice to make, a more palatable one.
I'd suggest you are reading the tea leaves without making allowance for the compressed time frame in which a lot has happened.
The US presidential election has indeed become super exciting again. I realised what you meant by Swift’s cats being as popular as her when my daughter, who is a big Swifty, told me everything about them. What a world!
I’m intrigued by the following: How the polling numbers was favoring Trump, and still is being reported to be on balance within the margin of error, given the facts – about half being female voters, the direction of the red party has been aggressively taking since the Rove v Wade was reversed; a public health crisis was handled in terms of control and handling of the patients; the integrity and the ability of the candidates at the ticket.
Most of the excitement of the current change in the presidential race is from the younger, educated, and perhaps partisan crowd, but with the numbers you have mentioned about the followers in social media I was expecting to see a substantial change in the poll numbers, but all the political pundits are going about explaining a 2 to 4 percent change. So, I really don’t know what to make of those numbers and poll predictions in general.
What you are likely missing is the "before" part of the before/after picture. Consider this: Eight (or is it nine?) days before Biden pulled out and Harris stepped up, Trump was leading by between 6-8 percentage points across the board -- including in the battleground states. In the space of a week, he is now in a statistical tie with Harris -- which is to say, his numbers are going down and hers are going up, and pretty damn fast when you consider the timeline. Keep in mind that in the US, most polling is done through sampling the "likely voters" segment, so this change in mood is not influenced by teen Swifties. Also in the last week, there's been a dramatic shift among Black voters both male and female and, interestingly, even white voters.
From here, the likely course is that the race will stay fairly tight, with either candidate leading in particular states but within the margin of error -- till the DNC convention in mid-August, which I suspect is when Harris will likely pull away. Conventions generally give a bump to the hosting party, but this year's RNC convention did not move the needle to any great degree, and was largely underwhelming -- whereas the DNC version is likely to be a blowout, with headline stars from both the political and entertainment fields dominating.
Another point at which the needle moves (though you can't say how much just yet) is when the VP pick is announced and the ticket takes shape.
I agree that rising crime, Roe, etc should have been negatives for Trump and a thriving economy and unprecedented employment numbers a plus for Biden, but honestly, he didn't seem to be able to hold it together in public, particularly in that awful debate. It could possibly have been early stages of the Covid relapse that put him down soon after -- but what the public saw was a man who seemed totally lost in the labyrinths of his own mind, and that is not particularly reassuring. So you have the hardcore MAGA vote staying solid, the Democrats feeling blah and unenthused, and the swing voter veering gently right because they couldn't see Biden surviving four years in office.
That whole scenario has changed. Now Trump is the old, dithering guy. The MAGA vote will remain locked in mostly -- but the Democrats are enthused, and the swing voters now have a different choice to make, a more palatable one.
I'd suggest you are reading the tea leaves without making allowance for the compressed time frame in which a lot has happened.
The US presidential election has indeed become super exciting again. I realised what you meant by Swift’s cats being as popular as her when my daughter, who is a big Swifty, told me everything about them. What a world!
Yeah. I knew she was a thing, but not how big - till the teen daughter of a cousin filled my ear with stuff, last night.