In Caravan's piece on Oct 7th Sunil Kashyap wrote that while the Jats are disgruntled with the ruling BJP, it isn't the case with the other castes, and the BJP has been busy wooing them. Combining that with your analysis the picture I get is that:
1. The BJP was not in anyway running from the fight and had a clear strategy.
2. This meant that the Cong implosion with poor candidate selection and rebels cutting into votes meant that the BJP was ready to cash in on it.
If not for the fact that they have little to show when they actually form governments, must say they really are a well oiled election machine at least most of the time. In comparison with the cong, who need to have really good days to win, the BJP need to have really bad days to lose (eg. Karnataka 2023)
I'd read Sunil's piece at the time. He is right to the extent that the BJP went out of its way to woo dalits and other non-Jat categories. But equally, the traction the BJP was getting was limited -- when doing my research I spoke to dalits as well, not just to Jats and Muslims.
Trouble is, whether it is Sunil or me or whoever, we can only speak to, and extrapolate from, X number of people. You try to avoid confirmation bias, so you make your conversations as widespread as possible so you have a representative sample -- but it is still not definitive. For instance, I spoke to dalits who were not too enamoured of the Hoodas, but who equally felt that they had been given short shrift by the BJP over the past decade. One such actually told me he would have voted for a third option if there was one, but that Chandrasekhar Azad, who had set himself up as that option, wasn't particularly active and so he felt that the Congress was the lesser of two evils.
Ref point two, yeah, this is a perennial problem with that party. They oscillate between either dictating everything from Delhi, or letting a regional satrap dictate everything. True for other parties as well, though -- Amit Shah calling the shots re selection cost the BJP big time in the LS elections, for instance.
My point is, way too many things were at play in Haryana, and at least personally, I am trying to steer clear of reducing the result to one or two talking points.
True true. Too many things and like you mentioned having strong independents muddies it further. I find the FPPS system itself where getting 35% of the votes gets you a win when there are more contenders painful when it comes to analysis!
Agree. Can't be falling on the EVM ECI trope each time. It rings false. And yes, KC Venugopal and Surjewala don't work for the party - that's been. That fact has been unserscored several times over. My point is that as a CEO of your party, can Rahul Gandhi not just fire the non performers and induct the hungry, smart, new blood that's been enthused after Rahul injected the party with some josh? He needs able generals who can strategise and he needs to learn to discern sycophancy from smart, long-term good-for-the- party politics. Yes this election wad the Congress's to lose, and they lost. It's mind boggling how often we think 'this will be the turning point', 'now they will learn anew', but nothing comes of it. And your point on 'now they're here, what to do with them' is a bloody good point. And by giving the seat/ ticket distribution to the Hoodas who have been turncoats again didn't sit well with the junta. Congress will not learn. Maha and Jha and every election, if BJP loses, it's because people are really tired and fed up and for lack of choice. It's never going to be Congress as first choice whatever RaGa does, meet, greet, eat at a Dalit's home or do haath jodo at any yatra. As a nation we aren't ready for a nice man, we want a street smart thug because we associate that with smartness and toughness and chutzpah. Congress should dissolve.
It is not that the Congress does not have a point about the EVMs and manipulation -- it is that it is restricted to media interactions and social media posts, which doesn't do anything to address the problem. If there is criminality involved, and can be demonstrated, file an FIR.
The Congress, particularly under Kharge, has been better at weeding out some of the deadwood (think of the Digvijays, the Gehlots et al). But the two I named slip through the net on the grounds that they are the "younger leadership", and they both need weeding out. KCV I hold personally responsible for the BJP doing as well in Karnataka during the LS polls as it did -- he over ruled the Siddu/DKS choice of candidates, and it cost the party big time.
The other problem with the Congress is entitled arrogance. It leans on its allies where it is weak, which is fine (UP is a prime example). But it also disses its allies where it believes it can go it alone, and that comes with a cost. Imagine having the likes of Akhilesh, Uddhav etc joining the campaign in Haryana, for instance. If you want to talk of an Opposition united against the BJP and standing for the Constitution, then it must be everywhere, not merely where it suits your self-interest.
It feels like Congress is confused on its electoral strategy. In states where it is in direct fight with BJP, they are unwilling to have prepoll alliances with the fear that they may cede ground to other parties at its own expense in the medium to long term (nothing is permanent in politics). That is in conflict with what maybe required in the short run in many states. Other than rebel congress candidates, it will be interesting to see how many votes that the AAP candidates polled, particularly in closely contested seats that Congress lost in Haryana. There was so much drama around alliance with AAP but nothing materialised eventually, likely because of the confusion that I was pointing out.
Not confused, so much as arrogant and entitled. It has cost them in the past -- during the TN assembly elections, for instance, they first went with a weird demand of 40-plus seats. Stalin told them, politely, to eff off. Finally, they went back to him, and he said look, we will give you 25 seats we think you can win, and we will back your candidates. You want any more than that, you are on your own. They finally accepted (and won 18 of those, up from the eight they had in the previous election), but the point is, they should have been realistic the first time round. (AAP, by the way, also loses alliance potential for the same reason -- unrealistic demands).
200% agree. That begs the question then - why don't they learn? Can't be they're all imbeciles? It's ego. Ego as big as the country. But each time you eat humble pie, you seem to be hungry for humiliation and that is something no one understands why, for what joy. Maybe there's a term for someone loving self-inflicted wounds. God knows! Just wish...oh what's the point in wishing.
Not that they aren't learning -- just that they are painfully slow learners. Takes a long time for each individual lesson to seep in, and time is something no one has in today's politics where there is an election every two months or so. Like with the Titanic, the question always is whether they will spot the iceberg and steer away in time -- sometimes, on rare occasions, they do; more often, they don't. Yeah, ego. Once they learn to play junior partner to entrenched regional leaders, and also once they learn what "united" means in "united Opposition", they will make progress. When, is the question I have no answer for.
Really interesting initial thoughts, Prem. I think the answer most likely lies in your third and fourth bullet points. I remember reading in IE the number of CM aspirants in Congress if it comes to power and it could be a reasonable proxy for the possibility that there are enough seats where different factions working at cross purposes. These idiots, in their quest for power, perhaps do not understand that one can become a CM only if the party as a whole wins enough seats to form the government. Anyway, look forward to more insights. The exit poll fiasco is also worth looking out for.
Some day, sooner than later, I will likely write about the advisors who run the Congress -- KC Venugopal and Surjewala, in particular. They are a factor across elections. And yes, I agree about the factions -- actually, it is a problem for all parties including the BJP, just that it is usually more fatal for the underdog than the incumbent.
In Caravan's piece on Oct 7th Sunil Kashyap wrote that while the Jats are disgruntled with the ruling BJP, it isn't the case with the other castes, and the BJP has been busy wooing them. Combining that with your analysis the picture I get is that:
1. The BJP was not in anyway running from the fight and had a clear strategy.
2. This meant that the Cong implosion with poor candidate selection and rebels cutting into votes meant that the BJP was ready to cash in on it.
If not for the fact that they have little to show when they actually form governments, must say they really are a well oiled election machine at least most of the time. In comparison with the cong, who need to have really good days to win, the BJP need to have really bad days to lose (eg. Karnataka 2023)
I'd read Sunil's piece at the time. He is right to the extent that the BJP went out of its way to woo dalits and other non-Jat categories. But equally, the traction the BJP was getting was limited -- when doing my research I spoke to dalits as well, not just to Jats and Muslims.
Trouble is, whether it is Sunil or me or whoever, we can only speak to, and extrapolate from, X number of people. You try to avoid confirmation bias, so you make your conversations as widespread as possible so you have a representative sample -- but it is still not definitive. For instance, I spoke to dalits who were not too enamoured of the Hoodas, but who equally felt that they had been given short shrift by the BJP over the past decade. One such actually told me he would have voted for a third option if there was one, but that Chandrasekhar Azad, who had set himself up as that option, wasn't particularly active and so he felt that the Congress was the lesser of two evils.
Ref point two, yeah, this is a perennial problem with that party. They oscillate between either dictating everything from Delhi, or letting a regional satrap dictate everything. True for other parties as well, though -- Amit Shah calling the shots re selection cost the BJP big time in the LS elections, for instance.
My point is, way too many things were at play in Haryana, and at least personally, I am trying to steer clear of reducing the result to one or two talking points.
True true. Too many things and like you mentioned having strong independents muddies it further. I find the FPPS system itself where getting 35% of the votes gets you a win when there are more contenders painful when it comes to analysis!
Agree. Can't be falling on the EVM ECI trope each time. It rings false. And yes, KC Venugopal and Surjewala don't work for the party - that's been. That fact has been unserscored several times over. My point is that as a CEO of your party, can Rahul Gandhi not just fire the non performers and induct the hungry, smart, new blood that's been enthused after Rahul injected the party with some josh? He needs able generals who can strategise and he needs to learn to discern sycophancy from smart, long-term good-for-the- party politics. Yes this election wad the Congress's to lose, and they lost. It's mind boggling how often we think 'this will be the turning point', 'now they will learn anew', but nothing comes of it. And your point on 'now they're here, what to do with them' is a bloody good point. And by giving the seat/ ticket distribution to the Hoodas who have been turncoats again didn't sit well with the junta. Congress will not learn. Maha and Jha and every election, if BJP loses, it's because people are really tired and fed up and for lack of choice. It's never going to be Congress as first choice whatever RaGa does, meet, greet, eat at a Dalit's home or do haath jodo at any yatra. As a nation we aren't ready for a nice man, we want a street smart thug because we associate that with smartness and toughness and chutzpah. Congress should dissolve.
It is not that the Congress does not have a point about the EVMs and manipulation -- it is that it is restricted to media interactions and social media posts, which doesn't do anything to address the problem. If there is criminality involved, and can be demonstrated, file an FIR.
The Congress, particularly under Kharge, has been better at weeding out some of the deadwood (think of the Digvijays, the Gehlots et al). But the two I named slip through the net on the grounds that they are the "younger leadership", and they both need weeding out. KCV I hold personally responsible for the BJP doing as well in Karnataka during the LS polls as it did -- he over ruled the Siddu/DKS choice of candidates, and it cost the party big time.
The other problem with the Congress is entitled arrogance. It leans on its allies where it is weak, which is fine (UP is a prime example). But it also disses its allies where it believes it can go it alone, and that comes with a cost. Imagine having the likes of Akhilesh, Uddhav etc joining the campaign in Haryana, for instance. If you want to talk of an Opposition united against the BJP and standing for the Constitution, then it must be everywhere, not merely where it suits your self-interest.
It feels like Congress is confused on its electoral strategy. In states where it is in direct fight with BJP, they are unwilling to have prepoll alliances with the fear that they may cede ground to other parties at its own expense in the medium to long term (nothing is permanent in politics). That is in conflict with what maybe required in the short run in many states. Other than rebel congress candidates, it will be interesting to see how many votes that the AAP candidates polled, particularly in closely contested seats that Congress lost in Haryana. There was so much drama around alliance with AAP but nothing materialised eventually, likely because of the confusion that I was pointing out.
Not confused, so much as arrogant and entitled. It has cost them in the past -- during the TN assembly elections, for instance, they first went with a weird demand of 40-plus seats. Stalin told them, politely, to eff off. Finally, they went back to him, and he said look, we will give you 25 seats we think you can win, and we will back your candidates. You want any more than that, you are on your own. They finally accepted (and won 18 of those, up from the eight they had in the previous election), but the point is, they should have been realistic the first time round. (AAP, by the way, also loses alliance potential for the same reason -- unrealistic demands).
200% agree. That begs the question then - why don't they learn? Can't be they're all imbeciles? It's ego. Ego as big as the country. But each time you eat humble pie, you seem to be hungry for humiliation and that is something no one understands why, for what joy. Maybe there's a term for someone loving self-inflicted wounds. God knows! Just wish...oh what's the point in wishing.
Not that they aren't learning -- just that they are painfully slow learners. Takes a long time for each individual lesson to seep in, and time is something no one has in today's politics where there is an election every two months or so. Like with the Titanic, the question always is whether they will spot the iceberg and steer away in time -- sometimes, on rare occasions, they do; more often, they don't. Yeah, ego. Once they learn to play junior partner to entrenched regional leaders, and also once they learn what "united" means in "united Opposition", they will make progress. When, is the question I have no answer for.
Really interesting initial thoughts, Prem. I think the answer most likely lies in your third and fourth bullet points. I remember reading in IE the number of CM aspirants in Congress if it comes to power and it could be a reasonable proxy for the possibility that there are enough seats where different factions working at cross purposes. These idiots, in their quest for power, perhaps do not understand that one can become a CM only if the party as a whole wins enough seats to form the government. Anyway, look forward to more insights. The exit poll fiasco is also worth looking out for.
Some day, sooner than later, I will likely write about the advisors who run the Congress -- KC Venugopal and Surjewala, in particular. They are a factor across elections. And yes, I agree about the factions -- actually, it is a problem for all parties including the BJP, just that it is usually more fatal for the underdog than the incumbent.