Prem Sir, you are an excellent writer. This is an amazing piece. I have shared this piece with Vivek Kaul who is a dear friend. He was not aware. Keep writing, Sir. A book by you on cricket is overdue 😁😁. Please consider this as a request from a fan 🙏🙏
Thank you, Sanjay -- and I am no "sir". Vivek is someone we all learn from -- in my case, clear, concise writing.
They say never say never, but on balance, I think a cricket book is highly unlikely to come from me -- I don't even follow it much now, haven't since the mid 2000s.
Do you have any theory on why Modi completely went off the rails in his speeches in the last weeks of the campaign ? In the last 10 years, his handlers and speech writers had kept him within limits, ensuring at least a plausible deniality for the things that he said. But now he was let completely loose. If it was because BJP was certain to win, they could still have waited till after the elections.
Guess the speaker post is more important to the allies than most of the ministerial berths. In a few weeks, when Shah tries to split TDP and/or JDU, the speaker's call on anti-defection disqualification will be crucial.
It is not even a theory. Both late last year and early this year, shaka-level surveys done by the RSS told them clearly that they were in trouble, and certain to drop seats big time in the North. They decided to push hard in the South to make up (The TDP alliance was only firmed up in mid-March after multiple trips by Shah).
The BJP does its own exit polls (Axis is one of their pollsters). By the end of the first phase, they knew things were going terribly wrong (results data confirms it -- the Opposition strike rate in that phase was around 62%). Besides, they were also doing pre-poll surveys, and they were told TN -- of which they had big hopes -- and Kerala was not going to offer much joy.
That is when they figured that broad-based appeal was not going to work. And so the sharp pivot to hardline communalism -- the thinking being to firm up their base, which they estimated at 32% plus-minus two or three percent, and which they hoped would be enough, with the help of a section of floating voters, to give them the edge in an FPTP system. (What they misread is that they do not have, never had, 32% hardline voters -- that number is, best estimate, around the 23-25% mark. The rest are those who voted for Modi for various factors other than hindutva (promise of economic resurgence in 2014, hyper nationalism in post-Balakot 2019). This time, that segment of voter had no reason to back the BJP, and many reasons to veer away.)
Net net, Modi figured he'd go flat out, with the Ram temple at the centre of his campaigns -- classic method of division on the lines of we built the Ram temple, they want to put a Babri lock on it. His BJP has always been out of touch with the people (who in his right mind would have treated farmers with such contempt, for example?) -- this time, they paid for it because of the lack of a countervailing argument.
And yes, Naidu's insistence on the Speaker post is exactly what you point out. These guys are seasoned politicians -- it is not like they would have missed seeing how that post was weaponised in Modi 2.0.
Thank you for the piece. Very insightful as always.
I am very curious about why we did not see any indication of the increasing disconnect between the UP BJP under Yogi and Amit Shah. The video you shared seems to indicate that the grievances are not something that have come up post election results but rather something that might have been churning for sometime now. I know that the BJP tries to avoid a G23 scenario. But still one would expect some kind of a credible rumour floating around in the circles. Any guess as to why that might have been the case? Also going forward, do you see this chasm between the UP unit and central leadership widening further if the status quo is kept vis-a-vis leadership?
Speculation is always welcome even if it might not pan out in the future. Thanks again for your insight.
That is what the media has done to this country -- kept it in the dark and fed it bullshit, like they say about how to grow mushrooms.
The grievances have been simmering for some time now. The elections accelerated things. I picked up on it and wrote about it in this newsletter, at least twice. Where did I get it from? The exact thing you said -- very credible rumours, or rather not rumours, but backstage whispers, from people on the inside.
Point is, the mainstream media knew. They possibly knew even before me, because I began paying close attention only once elections were announced. But they chose to not write about it because who wants to write about Shah's doings? Also, they get told to leave certain things alone. Which is why mainstream media never "noticed" -- in fact, even after all this they still pretend to not see anything.
In all likelihood it won't widen irrevocably just now -- the RSS has been active behind the scenes, promising Adityanath that Shah will be cut down to size and that he will not be blamed for the UP debacle (fair enough, that is entirely on Shah). But these things can only be walked back up to a point, so it's, for want of a better analogy, a quietly active volcano awaiting that slight tectonic movement to spew forth. Shah and Adityanath are both contenders for Modi's mantle -- and there is room for just one. So.
Thank you so much for the reply. I have to go back and re-read your pieces. As always thank you for the coverage. There are some interesting times ahead and would love to follow your insights accordingly.
Our family enjoyed reading your election related articles and this one written after the results were announced. Please continue, we rarely get analytical and easy to read pieces.
To clarify my position, I was making a general comment on the state of the media today and subtlety was the last thing on my mind. And to clear the air, the few media houses which I said give a balanced analysis included you, which I should have made more clear to avoid getting misinterpreted. As I consider you a writer of good standing, I wanted your opinion on the general state of media affairs and your comments have given me fodder for thought.Rest assured that their is nothing personal to it.
As far as politicians go, they always set lofty goals before the elections to appear confident to the voters, only for the results to say a different story. That is par for the course and not a BJP monopoly. BJP fought this election to gain a majority going by their track record but when it didn't, it finds consolation in beating the Congress,the principal opposition. When Politics is all about rhetoric and oneupmanship, what more can be expected.
No issues -- I misread your comment and reacted, probably hastily. My apologies.
Hyping themselves, then spinning outcomes wildly different from the expectations they themselves set, is as you say par for the course and not just a BJP monopoly. My limited point was that while it is in the nature of the politician to spin, it is equally the job of the media to not amplify that spin, but to focus on the hard facts to the exclusion of all else -- including their own personal preferences.
Yes Modi's spell on India's electorate has weakened and the INDIA alliance has made a leap in its performance.But the fact of the matter is that even then BJP has performed better than the Congress.Few media sources nowadays gives a balanced analysis with the danger that in opposing the Godi media, others fall to the other extreme. I might be wrong when I say this that one should keep their personal preferences at bay while writing for the public so that readers of all persuasions are enlightened.
This is an interestingly framed question, subtly premised on the assumption that I am writing from personal preferences. So let me clarify that first: I have my personal preferences -- anyone who says he or she doesn't is lying. But when I am reporting, I take care to allow for that, and to ensure that any call I am making is not from bias, but from what I see and hear. What I have written, about every single phase of the election, is on this site -- read those, compare that with what happened, and tell me which statement stemming from "personal preference" turned out to be wrong?
To the larger question: There is reporting/analysis, and then there is PR.
First take analysis. If you showed the results of the 2024 election results to say someone from Mars and asked for an analysis, it would read thus: The BJP is the single largest party. It is however 32 seats of winning an even simple majority, let alone a commanding one, and is now dependent on allies, none of them known for their constancy, to run a government.
Did the BJP fight this election to do "better than the Congress", or to win a majority of its own? If the former, fair enough. If the latter, then the BJP failed to attain its objective. In this connection: the PM while campaigning differentiated between the BJP and the Opposition thus: He said that "mili-jhuli" governments lead to instability and so the natural choice for the people is the BJP. Not the NDA, the BJP. He repeated the theme in several of his interviews, as for example: https://www.indiatoday.in/programme/newstrack-with-rahul-kanwal/video/people-know-result-of-mili-juli-sarkar-decoding-pm-modis-interview-with-india-today-2482089-2023-12-29. And now, he has to lead a "mili jhuli" government which, according to him, leads to instability.
So, that is analysis. Now for PR, or "spin". "The BJP did better than the Congress". Sure. As more than one anchor kept repeating, the BJP won more seats in this one election than the Congress did in the last three elections combined. Question is: was that your goal? No -- the BJP fought to win an election, not to win more seats than the Congress, or someone else. To now frame it as winning more seats than the Congress is to shift your own goalposts.
By the same token, the Opposition can -- and in fact is -- also spin. For instance: In the BJP stronghold of UP, which it has dominated with 72 seats in 2014 and in 2019, the BJP has come second with just 33 seats -- despite bulldozers, despite Ayodhya, despite the PM contesting from one of UP's prestigious constituencies.
Or how about this? The BJP -- both Modi and Shah, and others -- have since 2014 been saying that one of their goals is a Congress-mukth Bharat. (Why a government wants to eliminate an Opposition party in a democracy, I don't know, but anyway). The BJP spent ten years in pursuit of that goal. And despite all of that time, effort and money, the Congress emerged as the single largest party. And that is how the Congress can spin it.
Congress getting 99 seats is not an electoral win. At best, it is a sign of improving fortunes. The BJP winning 240 (down 63) is not an electoral win -- at best, it is a sign to the BJP-led government of where the problems lie, which classes of citizens are upset, and what therefore needs to be done to rectify those defects.
Finally: I have said this several times, but I will say this again: I write here in order to clarify my own thinking. I don't promote my newsletter on Substack, or WA, or any other medium, nor have I ever asked anyone else to. People find it on their own -- and they have the absolute freedom to read, or not, to accept, or not, to agree, or not. That is fine. But as long as I do this, I will keep doing what I know how to do: to report. Whether a reader sees what I say as reporting, or as "personal preference", is entirely up to him or her.
Indeed. There has been, if you look into the cracks left by MSM coverage, excellent examples of eloquence that this election cycle has thrown up. That's a thought, time permitting one of these days I'll try and round a few of those up, at least for the record.
Good morning Prem. Thank you as always. Interesting and troubled times ahead. The ruling party's shenanigans and headaches aside, even the Opposition needs to remain united and strong or else Ranga of the Billa Ranga duo will start buying seats from the Opposition so that in the eventuality of Naidu or Nitish deciding to flip, they'd still have the numbers. My worry is the delimitation - if it comes about it might split the country into North and South like Korea and other nations (incl Germany, East and West). Because after the collapse of federalism, more or less, the Treasury benches coffers being filled by revenues and taxes more from the Southern States, a call for a separation wouldn't seem uncalled for. I must confess that U held scorn for UP the kingmaker state because of this supposed blind 'bhakti'. Thankfully they put me in my place as they did to the megalonaniac narcissist. Am also appalled at how the 'buzdil' media (Divinity's words not mine) continues to spin the narrative in favour of the Supreme Narcissit. Check this video out with Yogendra Yadav showing Rahul Kanwal his place and also subtly letting Sardesai know how everyone capitulated to the ruling duo who probably have their owners by theur balla - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C70IhScoOck/?igsh=dDBoY2ppam51ZXE3.
Thought provoking, as always. I did not know about this electoral gerrymandering plan - I guess, BJP is only catching up with the Republicans. The problem is, if they did manage to pull this off, this would have the set the South aflame but I also think we can avoid a civil war type situation because of the sober realization in the upper party echelon that the ground swell of anger and outrage from 800+ seats in UP would finish them off next time. What would be really interesting to see is how the two wily, cunning veterans, Naidu and Nitish, will avoid BJP cannibalizing their parties.
Have enjoyed reading you, through the election season..Disagree with around 80% of it, but we all need to read writers outside our echo chambers, All the best for your future endeavors . Would love more book, article recommendations.
Disagreement is fine - and the comments section here is open to encourage disagreement and debate. Also, it is encouraging that 20% of what I say resonates with you. Thank you for reading.
Prem Sir, you are an excellent writer. This is an amazing piece. I have shared this piece with Vivek Kaul who is a dear friend. He was not aware. Keep writing, Sir. A book by you on cricket is overdue 😁😁. Please consider this as a request from a fan 🙏🙏
Thank you, Sanjay -- and I am no "sir". Vivek is someone we all learn from -- in my case, clear, concise writing.
They say never say never, but on balance, I think a cricket book is highly unlikely to come from me -- I don't even follow it much now, haven't since the mid 2000s.
Be well
Prem - You not following / writing on cricket in these last few years has been such a big loss for us readers and cricket fans :(
Ok Prem. Look forward to the next piece.
Do you have any theory on why Modi completely went off the rails in his speeches in the last weeks of the campaign ? In the last 10 years, his handlers and speech writers had kept him within limits, ensuring at least a plausible deniality for the things that he said. But now he was let completely loose. If it was because BJP was certain to win, they could still have waited till after the elections.
Guess the speaker post is more important to the allies than most of the ministerial berths. In a few weeks, when Shah tries to split TDP and/or JDU, the speaker's call on anti-defection disqualification will be crucial.
It is not even a theory. Both late last year and early this year, shaka-level surveys done by the RSS told them clearly that they were in trouble, and certain to drop seats big time in the North. They decided to push hard in the South to make up (The TDP alliance was only firmed up in mid-March after multiple trips by Shah).
The BJP does its own exit polls (Axis is one of their pollsters). By the end of the first phase, they knew things were going terribly wrong (results data confirms it -- the Opposition strike rate in that phase was around 62%). Besides, they were also doing pre-poll surveys, and they were told TN -- of which they had big hopes -- and Kerala was not going to offer much joy.
That is when they figured that broad-based appeal was not going to work. And so the sharp pivot to hardline communalism -- the thinking being to firm up their base, which they estimated at 32% plus-minus two or three percent, and which they hoped would be enough, with the help of a section of floating voters, to give them the edge in an FPTP system. (What they misread is that they do not have, never had, 32% hardline voters -- that number is, best estimate, around the 23-25% mark. The rest are those who voted for Modi for various factors other than hindutva (promise of economic resurgence in 2014, hyper nationalism in post-Balakot 2019). This time, that segment of voter had no reason to back the BJP, and many reasons to veer away.)
Net net, Modi figured he'd go flat out, with the Ram temple at the centre of his campaigns -- classic method of division on the lines of we built the Ram temple, they want to put a Babri lock on it. His BJP has always been out of touch with the people (who in his right mind would have treated farmers with such contempt, for example?) -- this time, they paid for it because of the lack of a countervailing argument.
And yes, Naidu's insistence on the Speaker post is exactly what you point out. These guys are seasoned politicians -- it is not like they would have missed seeing how that post was weaponised in Modi 2.0.
Thank you for the piece. Very insightful as always.
I am very curious about why we did not see any indication of the increasing disconnect between the UP BJP under Yogi and Amit Shah. The video you shared seems to indicate that the grievances are not something that have come up post election results but rather something that might have been churning for sometime now. I know that the BJP tries to avoid a G23 scenario. But still one would expect some kind of a credible rumour floating around in the circles. Any guess as to why that might have been the case? Also going forward, do you see this chasm between the UP unit and central leadership widening further if the status quo is kept vis-a-vis leadership?
Speculation is always welcome even if it might not pan out in the future. Thanks again for your insight.
That is what the media has done to this country -- kept it in the dark and fed it bullshit, like they say about how to grow mushrooms.
The grievances have been simmering for some time now. The elections accelerated things. I picked up on it and wrote about it in this newsletter, at least twice. Where did I get it from? The exact thing you said -- very credible rumours, or rather not rumours, but backstage whispers, from people on the inside.
Point is, the mainstream media knew. They possibly knew even before me, because I began paying close attention only once elections were announced. But they chose to not write about it because who wants to write about Shah's doings? Also, they get told to leave certain things alone. Which is why mainstream media never "noticed" -- in fact, even after all this they still pretend to not see anything.
In all likelihood it won't widen irrevocably just now -- the RSS has been active behind the scenes, promising Adityanath that Shah will be cut down to size and that he will not be blamed for the UP debacle (fair enough, that is entirely on Shah). But these things can only be walked back up to a point, so it's, for want of a better analogy, a quietly active volcano awaiting that slight tectonic movement to spew forth. Shah and Adityanath are both contenders for Modi's mantle -- and there is room for just one. So.
Thank you so much for the reply. I have to go back and re-read your pieces. As always thank you for the coverage. There are some interesting times ahead and would love to follow your insights accordingly.
Our family enjoyed reading your election related articles and this one written after the results were announced. Please continue, we rarely get analytical and easy to read pieces.
Thank you, and the family, gor reading. I write to clarify thoughts in my own head, glad it is of some use to others as well. Stay safe, best to all.
Stark insights! Thank you for writing such unbiased and matter of fact piece.
Thanks for reading, Sudha. Be well
Thank you Prem. I have been a regular reader since the 5th phase. Please keep writing.
Thank you for reading. Have a good weekend.
To clarify my position, I was making a general comment on the state of the media today and subtlety was the last thing on my mind. And to clear the air, the few media houses which I said give a balanced analysis included you, which I should have made more clear to avoid getting misinterpreted. As I consider you a writer of good standing, I wanted your opinion on the general state of media affairs and your comments have given me fodder for thought.Rest assured that their is nothing personal to it.
As far as politicians go, they always set lofty goals before the elections to appear confident to the voters, only for the results to say a different story. That is par for the course and not a BJP monopoly. BJP fought this election to gain a majority going by their track record but when it didn't, it finds consolation in beating the Congress,the principal opposition. When Politics is all about rhetoric and oneupmanship, what more can be expected.
Look forward to reading your future writeups.
No issues -- I misread your comment and reacted, probably hastily. My apologies.
Hyping themselves, then spinning outcomes wildly different from the expectations they themselves set, is as you say par for the course and not just a BJP monopoly. My limited point was that while it is in the nature of the politician to spin, it is equally the job of the media to not amplify that spin, but to focus on the hard facts to the exclusion of all else -- including their own personal preferences.
Take care, stay safe
Yes Modi's spell on India's electorate has weakened and the INDIA alliance has made a leap in its performance.But the fact of the matter is that even then BJP has performed better than the Congress.Few media sources nowadays gives a balanced analysis with the danger that in opposing the Godi media, others fall to the other extreme. I might be wrong when I say this that one should keep their personal preferences at bay while writing for the public so that readers of all persuasions are enlightened.
Your thoughts Sir on the above.
This is an interestingly framed question, subtly premised on the assumption that I am writing from personal preferences. So let me clarify that first: I have my personal preferences -- anyone who says he or she doesn't is lying. But when I am reporting, I take care to allow for that, and to ensure that any call I am making is not from bias, but from what I see and hear. What I have written, about every single phase of the election, is on this site -- read those, compare that with what happened, and tell me which statement stemming from "personal preference" turned out to be wrong?
To the larger question: There is reporting/analysis, and then there is PR.
First take analysis. If you showed the results of the 2024 election results to say someone from Mars and asked for an analysis, it would read thus: The BJP is the single largest party. It is however 32 seats of winning an even simple majority, let alone a commanding one, and is now dependent on allies, none of them known for their constancy, to run a government.
Did the BJP fight this election to do "better than the Congress", or to win a majority of its own? If the former, fair enough. If the latter, then the BJP failed to attain its objective. In this connection: the PM while campaigning differentiated between the BJP and the Opposition thus: He said that "mili-jhuli" governments lead to instability and so the natural choice for the people is the BJP. Not the NDA, the BJP. He repeated the theme in several of his interviews, as for example: https://www.indiatoday.in/programme/newstrack-with-rahul-kanwal/video/people-know-result-of-mili-juli-sarkar-decoding-pm-modis-interview-with-india-today-2482089-2023-12-29. And now, he has to lead a "mili jhuli" government which, according to him, leads to instability.
So, that is analysis. Now for PR, or "spin". "The BJP did better than the Congress". Sure. As more than one anchor kept repeating, the BJP won more seats in this one election than the Congress did in the last three elections combined. Question is: was that your goal? No -- the BJP fought to win an election, not to win more seats than the Congress, or someone else. To now frame it as winning more seats than the Congress is to shift your own goalposts.
By the same token, the Opposition can -- and in fact is -- also spin. For instance: In the BJP stronghold of UP, which it has dominated with 72 seats in 2014 and in 2019, the BJP has come second with just 33 seats -- despite bulldozers, despite Ayodhya, despite the PM contesting from one of UP's prestigious constituencies.
Or how about this? The BJP -- both Modi and Shah, and others -- have since 2014 been saying that one of their goals is a Congress-mukth Bharat. (Why a government wants to eliminate an Opposition party in a democracy, I don't know, but anyway). The BJP spent ten years in pursuit of that goal. And despite all of that time, effort and money, the Congress emerged as the single largest party. And that is how the Congress can spin it.
Congress getting 99 seats is not an electoral win. At best, it is a sign of improving fortunes. The BJP winning 240 (down 63) is not an electoral win -- at best, it is a sign to the BJP-led government of where the problems lie, which classes of citizens are upset, and what therefore needs to be done to rectify those defects.
Finally: I have said this several times, but I will say this again: I write here in order to clarify my own thinking. I don't promote my newsletter on Substack, or WA, or any other medium, nor have I ever asked anyone else to. People find it on their own -- and they have the absolute freedom to read, or not, to accept, or not, to agree, or not. That is fine. But as long as I do this, I will keep doing what I know how to do: to report. Whether a reader sees what I say as reporting, or as "personal preference", is entirely up to him or her.
Take care, stay safe.
The video linked from the post-script is too good. What eloquence!
Indeed. There has been, if you look into the cracks left by MSM coverage, excellent examples of eloquence that this election cycle has thrown up. That's a thought, time permitting one of these days I'll try and round a few of those up, at least for the record.
"probably had tgeir owners by their balls" not balla though that sounds cool too...🤣
I must confess I held scorn not U. Sorry. Typo.
Good morning Prem. Thank you as always. Interesting and troubled times ahead. The ruling party's shenanigans and headaches aside, even the Opposition needs to remain united and strong or else Ranga of the Billa Ranga duo will start buying seats from the Opposition so that in the eventuality of Naidu or Nitish deciding to flip, they'd still have the numbers. My worry is the delimitation - if it comes about it might split the country into North and South like Korea and other nations (incl Germany, East and West). Because after the collapse of federalism, more or less, the Treasury benches coffers being filled by revenues and taxes more from the Southern States, a call for a separation wouldn't seem uncalled for. I must confess that U held scorn for UP the kingmaker state because of this supposed blind 'bhakti'. Thankfully they put me in my place as they did to the megalonaniac narcissist. Am also appalled at how the 'buzdil' media (Divinity's words not mine) continues to spin the narrative in favour of the Supreme Narcissit. Check this video out with Yogendra Yadav showing Rahul Kanwal his place and also subtly letting Sardesai know how everyone capitulated to the ruling duo who probably have their owners by theur balla - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C70IhScoOck/?igsh=dDBoY2ppam51ZXE3.
But to cut a looooong story short, thank you, and yes to politics and civil society. And yes, to end on a cheerful note, do watch this, I love her https://x.com/ms_medusssa/status/1798250205638537268?t=lZyAmxNif6Nku3zptqCaiw&s=08
Thought provoking, as always. I did not know about this electoral gerrymandering plan - I guess, BJP is only catching up with the Republicans. The problem is, if they did manage to pull this off, this would have the set the South aflame but I also think we can avoid a civil war type situation because of the sober realization in the upper party echelon that the ground swell of anger and outrage from 800+ seats in UP would finish them off next time. What would be really interesting to see is how the two wily, cunning veterans, Naidu and Nitish, will avoid BJP cannibalizing their parties.
I meant, 140+ seats... Can't edit the comment for some reason
I’m really looking at your writing here as a measured and meaty analysis of the unfolding situation. Thank you for the amazing writing!
Thank you Mukta. I am discovering, with the help of readers, that thinking aloud, researching as I go, is a good way to go. Very grateful.
Loved reading this. Thanks, once again for sharing sharp insights .
Have enjoyed reading you, through the election season..Disagree with around 80% of it, but we all need to read writers outside our echo chambers, All the best for your future endeavors . Would love more book, article recommendations.
Disagreement is fine - and the comments section here is open to encourage disagreement and debate. Also, it is encouraging that 20% of what I say resonates with you. Thank you for reading.
Sorry, forgot - yes, will from next week do article roundups, book clips, etc.