I feel one reason among many why Modi keeps winning is that a sizable percentage of the middle class is still invested in him.They feel he is the best available to realise their hopes. A few examples I came across that lead me to this conclusion.
1. Indian Railways has seen multiple accidents in the recent past. But many in the middle class refuse to see it and is going gaga over the newly introduced Vande Bharat trains for their speed(?) and comfort.
2. Most in the middle class were against reservations till the BJP introduced the EWS quota some years back which benefited some of them. They are now tight lipped.
3.During Covid, the lockdown snatched away the livelihood of millions from the lower classes. The Middle classes largely remained untouched and therefore do not hold the BJP accountable.
4. Chinese incursions on the border do not mean anything to them. Such is their patriotism that their blood boils at the 1962 debacle even now, but they are mum on the present as if nothing happened.
5. Inflation and unemployment do not seize their attention as they are simply unaffected.Their only lament is that the pay package nowadays is not as hefty as before and that too is because of conditions prevailing in Europe and America.
6. The performance of the Godi media is never an issue because ultimately you watch what you like and believe.
7. The dislike for the Muslim community in the Hindu middle class which was always there but subterranean has got a perfect opening through the BJP. A sense of shadenfreude takes over at the plight of their Muslim fellow citizens.
8. The electoral bonds scam( it is still a scheme to them, but not of the scheming type) elicited at the most a guarded smile.
9. The Ram temple is considered a sort of victory not so much for their religious beliefs as for teaching the Muslim minority a lesson and putting them in their places.
10. Hugging American presidents makes them believe that India has arrived and the world has but to take notice. They love Mr Jaishankar's hard hitting one liners to the foreign press, but are silent on his silence on China.
And to think that they were all Congress supporters before 2014. Now I know that it was not out of conviction but want of a better alternative that they voted the way they did in all those elections.
Economist Joan Robinson put it best: "Whatever you can say about India, the opposite is equally true". That quote came to mind while reading this.
All of what you say is true, but so are its opposites. (1) Even at the height of Modi's popularity, he has never won 50% of the middle class vote. (2) True that the middle class does not get fussed about farmers, unemployment, etc -- but equally true that of late, inflation has begun to hurt them, and this has triggered a shift in voting patterns. Not a seismic shift, true, but Modi *has* begun to lose a measure of previously unquestioned middle class support. (3) True about the anti-Muslim hate -- but equally true that in this recent election, when that hate was ramped up to levels never thought of before, the BJP actually lost ground, and seats, in those constituencies where hate was maximised. (4) True about Chinese incursions, but equally true that the "strongman" aura surrounding Modi has begun to deflate a bit among the middle class as well. And so on. As I mentioned in response to another comment here -- there is change, but as happened during the election cycle, that change is so imperceptible, and the propaganda machinery still so active, that it is not easily perceived. (I was thinking of a piece I wrote about a wave rising in the North -- it was an undercurrent, not readily seen, but it was there. When I wrote it, I got slammed for it in mails, and not always polite ones either, but the wave was there, and it washed away the BJP in parts of the country it had never expected to face problems in. Same difference happening now -- look below the surface.)
And finally, this: the growing discomfort among sections of the middle class is real; the shift away from the BJP is marginal, but also real. Whether the BJP can reverse the trend before it becomes a butter slide depends on its ability to manager the economy -- and the one thing I am sure about is that the party has a serious talent deficit in that (and other) area. If the economy keeps going down this inflationary path, if prices keep rising, if taxes and tolls keep increasing -- all of which I am sure will happen -- then that shift will gather momentum.
Joan Robinson is right, but the trouble is the opposite is not true in equal measure, and therefore it takes time and patience which finds utterance only once in five years in our Democracy. In Modi's case it is true that the shine has faded though not enough to dislodge him. He has anyway secured his legacy on the strength of his 15years tenure.His ego would be satiated,I hope.
Hope your views fortify further on the ground.Afterall the country is more important than the individual
"Time and patience" is exactly my point. We've been under the pump for so long, that the election results are being seen as "we have finally turned the corner". Not yet we haven't -- what we have actually done is begun turning the steering wheel, and with a country of our size and complexity, the actual turn takes a long time. I remember using the analogy of turning an ocean liner, in one of my responses today -- big ships don't turn on a dime. All I do, personally, is keep an eye on the signs -- if all or most of them point in one direction, I'm willing to wait; if they don't, I begin to think we are in deep trouble. Thus far, the majority of signs I see points the right way, so I'll wait, and watch.
A significant number is viscerally afraid of losing to the minorities. No matter what the hardship they need to endure, this support base shows no sign of withering. Hence, the growth space for liberal thinking is limited in the foreseeable future. Undoubtedly, some state elections will go against the current dispensation, but at the center, reason has to work very hard and wait patiently to flower.
This, as with all things India, is partly true. True that there is a hard core of the committed who are afraid of losing part of their power to minorities -- and not just Muslims either, though Muslims are a handy strawman for propaganda purposes. That base will stay strongly committed, and any and all attempts to convert sizeable numbers of them are a waste of time and effort.
The key, though, is what lies outside of that base. Generously estimate that core at 40%. In reality it is more in the range of 25-28%, with the balance being not ideologically committed, but buying into the TINA factor -- that is the section that swung marginally away from the parivar and was responsible for how the BJP lost out big time in the heartland. But even if you go with the more generous estimate, the battle is for the other 60%.
Till date, the Congress has been unable to garner even half that electorate -- that is, make sure of 30%. What has changed is the mindset shift -- finally, the Congress has woken up to the importance of regional parties, and the necessity to let regional parties lead in states where they are strong (DMK in TN, SP in UP, RJD in Bihar, Uddhav Sena and Pawar NCP in Maharashtra, JMM in Jharkhand and so on. These parties reach beyond the Congress vote cluster -- and that is where, and why, the game turned. And from what I know, that template, which has the Congress playing junior partner in many states, has now been accepted as de facto by the Congress *and* the regional leaders.
Agree that change at the Centre is going to be a very long process and will require much patience and persistent plodding -- but for now, winning states is (and in my opinion, should be) the strategy. Each state lost inverses the BJP's claim as the largest national party; more importantly, the BJP loses control over state administrations, and that control has always been its key to success at the national level.
Optimistic Prem at his best! We need you to keep us ticking. I agree that the upcoming state election results have the capability to significantly moderate the effects of the Lok Sabha mandate - significant loss will further worsen the effects of adverse LS results for the ruling party and winning a state like MH will mitigate the adverse results of LS. Noticed this from an “ally” within NDA:
READ: End practice of quota seats becoming ‘un-reserved’, check growing ‘aakrosh’: Union MoS to Yogi
Wonder if such small events are going to cumulatively bring more impact from coalition politics than big bang stuff. Would Apna Dal have dared to write such letters under full majority? Or is it just the run of the mill politics?
I think it was Edward Lear who wrote: "Between optimist and pessimist, the difference is droll/One sees the doughnut, the other sees the hole."
I'd prefer to think of myself as a realist, actually. I see -- okay, try to see -- the whole board, not just the parts that suit my preconceived notions. Funnily enough, so do you: You just pointed out a story on Apna Dal's letter to the UP CM which, as you yourself point out, is a sign that lesser allies now feel themselves more empowered than at any time since 2014. (Note also, for instance, that as the direction of the wind became clear even in the early stages of the election cycle, Haryana witnessed a political churn that has put the ruling BJP on a knife edge; note also the collapse of the alliance with Chautala's JJP.
To return to where you started, I am no optimist in the sense that I don't see signs of dramatic change in the immediate future -- it's like these massive ocean liners, you can't turn a nation around on a dime. But the realist in me says that the NDA is no longer in a position to ram dangerous bills through Parliament just because it can, or to effectively install a dictatorial regime under a thinly veiled pretence at democracy. That's a start, and it is early days. So.
Also check this out. Yesterday marked day 423 since the ethnic conflict began in Manipur. This week, the president of the state unit of the BJP came to Delhi to meet Amit Shah and ask that he urgently find a solution to the crisis. A day later, seven MLAs belonging to the BJP and its ally the Naga People's Front landed in Delhi with the same demand. No one from the ruling party bothered with the crisis for the better part of 420 days -- now, suddenly, widespread concern in the ruling party. Why? Because the election results are telling them that people -- both Meiteis and Kukis -- have turned away from the party.
We want change to happen overnight, but it rarely does. The thing to do is keep an eye on the subtle shifts in direction. And there are shifts -- this is not me being optimistic :-)
Prem, if my earlier post came across as suggesting that yours is misplaced optimism, my apologies. That wasn’t my intention. Realism is perhaps more apt. As I indicated, cumulative effects of small changes is what will likely turn things around, at least initially, rather than dramatic events. In fact, even a change in regime is unlikely to lead to dramatic shifts in the lives of many ordinary folks - we have to fight for more fundamental changes in governance for that to happen. It’s a really long game given where we are run now.
Oh no, not at all -- I didn't take it that way, no worries. And yes -- there are times when seismic change is required (PVN Rao led us through one such period), but most times, institutions and countries progress through doing lots of little things right.
I pity the president. She doesn’t inspire in me the respect her position deserves. Her only qualification seems to be to make Ramnath Kovind more qualified. I hope she knows that what reads will not be attributed to her.
Regarding election and the mandate of the citizens, at the brass tag level nothing appears to have changed. Still the Sha-di regime has managed to impose its choices. The leader has been thrusted upon the parliament, ignoring all traditions of procedures; no change in the cabinet – telling the public that all ministers have done a worthy job; maintaining the same house monitors whose records are well known for all the see. I don’t know what the empowered opposition will be able to achieve, they can debate all they want, but the rulers will make all the decisions in the way they have been accustomed to, as per their agenda. Sorry to be pessimistic, but I am looking towards a day when justice will get served, which doesn’t appear to be in the horizon.
One of the achievements of this government was touted to be the growth in infrastructure, but sadly that polish is wearing thin.
One point I should have made in the piece: By convention, the President's address is written by the government of the day; he or she merely reads out what is written. This is true of Governors too. My problem is not that she read out the speech given to her, my problem is that she allowed herself to mouth lies. She is the President, she has the right to contest what is written and ask for changes, or refuse to read any part that she is not comfortable with (a case in point is, say, TN Governor Ravi, who had a face off with the DMK over his refusal. to read a section of an address written for him).
If your idea of change is a dramatic and sudden reversal of established NDA norms, that is not going to happen. But change IS happening -- as I pointed out in my piece, the government even in these early days is on the defensive, and that is something I could not have said any time in the past ten years. The first real test is not who makes up the Cabinet -- that is the privilege of the party in power, and they used it to make some obscure point by bringing back the same faces. The real test is when the government looks to table the first controversial bill of its third term -- and I suspect you will see signs of change when that happens, and also in the next session when the Budget is tabled.
As to infrastructure, "touted to be" is right -- the supposed infrastructure is more hype than substance. One example is growth in highway construction. Never mind the quality, even the measure is wrong. Under UPA, a mile of highway, irrespective of the number of lanes, was still a mile (okay, km). So if they constructed one km of a six lane highway it counted as one km. Under the NDA, they changed the measure -- now, one km of a six lane highway counts as six km, not one.
Or take railways. We are supposed to have moved into modernity with Vande Bharat. Says who? Those trains are still running on old infrastructure -- and the problem with that is showing. About a week ago, there was a news story about the Railways reducing the speed of a slew of VB trains "to ensure safety". Think of what that actually means -- these are supposed to be superfast trains in theory, but now they are reduced to the same speed as the Shatabdis et al. And in the process, there is less investment in regular trains, leading to severe over-crowding; there is less investment in maintenance, leading to increasing incidences of accidents.
This is true across the board -- the NDA merely changes the way something is measured to make itself look good. The problem is us -- we take what we are told without questioning.
Welcome back Prem. Hope your brief hiatus was good. Reading your essays is always great. Yours is the most balanced view on Indian politics. I stopped watching Barkha or Faye some time ago, as I discovered Hindi Youtube channels or a Meghnerd or Manisha Pande offering better insight, especially Hindi channels such as TCH, DB Live, The Public India, etc. The journos are from the Hindi hearland and their reading of politics is just fascinating to hear. Of course it's like an echo chamber I admit as they're critical of the 56" ki sarkar, but also critical of Rahul Gandhi, INC etc. For instance now the alternative media people are asking a pertinent question - why is RaGa afraid of the word Muslim? When will he, as Leader of Oppn talk about bulldozer raj and our Muslim brethren. So it's really nice and insightful to read your take in the midst of all this. Your keen observations are food for thought. And yes Modi 3.0 is really 2.1 Beta version. Not much seems to have changed with them, and yet Parliament has. With new Penal laws now known as unpronounceable Bharat Nyay Sanhita and 2 others and the Broadcast Bill coming into force, sometimes you wonder, what exactly did we vote for if not change and hope and freedom and respect? Anyway, sorry my comment is almost as long as your essay, apologies. Glad to have you back.
Two points here. To address the first: Yes, the alternative journalists, for want of a better word, are in a sense a part of their own echo chamber. Or to put it differently, they have their biases. Question is, who doesn't? I am biased -- in favour of truth, of justice, of fairness, decency, etc. These are the prisms through which I view contemporary events (and, I suspect, this is true for the Ravish Kumars of this world as well). This "bias" means that when you find those norms flouted, you question it -- and it doesn't matter who does the flouting. To simplify: the journalists you name and others like them have questioned the Congress with equal heat, both when the party was in power, and when it was/is in Opposition (and so have I, by the way).
That is the point of journalism, really -- not being free of bias, but of being aware of what you are biased in favour of, and against.
As to the Muslim question, I don't think it is a question of aversion to the community, so much as a matter of timing. Muslims have been under the pump for a long time now -- the reason the question of RaGa's (and the Opposition's) silence is coming up now is that with its numerical strength increased, we expect more from the Opposition now, than we did any time these past ten years. My belief is that the issue will become big; I don't yet know enough to have a comment on what the Opposition thinking on timing is, though.
As for "we all voted" -- yes, we did, but not in sufficient numbers to tilt the scales clearly in the direction of freedom and justice. It is a fractured verdict -- we the people cut the BJP down to size, undercut its monarchical ambitions, and strengthened the Opposition. But the verdict was not decisive enough, either way. Hopefully, we will learn.
Yes, hopefully. That 4-letter word that gives us something to cling to. Like amid a crumbling country (literally, more than figuratively, if you look at our cities under siege, airports falling apart, trains colliding, roads cracking up), it seems we are living in a dystopian sci-fi movie, there's India winning the really short version of the game called cricket. Maybe we are - I do remember Layla, an eerily prescient series based on the book by the same name. If you haven't watched it, please do. It could have been made better, but it does make you wonder. I wonder what the right wing zealots will feel if we say Bhaarat, Bhaaarat....Bhaaarat, Bhaarat...it sounds odd to me, but then India is an anglicized name...ha ha ha...oh the things we need to wrap our heads around. Have a fantastic Sunday!
The more things change the more they remain the same. A tiger, even a wounded one, cannot change its stripes. This dispensation will find new ways of doing the same old things. It is upto the opposition now to decide how to play the game.
Because what else do they have? I suspect the Opposition has got a handle on things now, though. They will stumble occasionally - it's not easy to find your groove after ten years of inaction. But if all I am hearing is true, they are getting a good grip on this.
I feel one reason among many why Modi keeps winning is that a sizable percentage of the middle class is still invested in him.They feel he is the best available to realise their hopes. A few examples I came across that lead me to this conclusion.
1. Indian Railways has seen multiple accidents in the recent past. But many in the middle class refuse to see it and is going gaga over the newly introduced Vande Bharat trains for their speed(?) and comfort.
2. Most in the middle class were against reservations till the BJP introduced the EWS quota some years back which benefited some of them. They are now tight lipped.
3.During Covid, the lockdown snatched away the livelihood of millions from the lower classes. The Middle classes largely remained untouched and therefore do not hold the BJP accountable.
4. Chinese incursions on the border do not mean anything to them. Such is their patriotism that their blood boils at the 1962 debacle even now, but they are mum on the present as if nothing happened.
5. Inflation and unemployment do not seize their attention as they are simply unaffected.Their only lament is that the pay package nowadays is not as hefty as before and that too is because of conditions prevailing in Europe and America.
6. The performance of the Godi media is never an issue because ultimately you watch what you like and believe.
7. The dislike for the Muslim community in the Hindu middle class which was always there but subterranean has got a perfect opening through the BJP. A sense of shadenfreude takes over at the plight of their Muslim fellow citizens.
8. The electoral bonds scam( it is still a scheme to them, but not of the scheming type) elicited at the most a guarded smile.
9. The Ram temple is considered a sort of victory not so much for their religious beliefs as for teaching the Muslim minority a lesson and putting them in their places.
10. Hugging American presidents makes them believe that India has arrived and the world has but to take notice. They love Mr Jaishankar's hard hitting one liners to the foreign press, but are silent on his silence on China.
And to think that they were all Congress supporters before 2014. Now I know that it was not out of conviction but want of a better alternative that they voted the way they did in all those elections.
Economist Joan Robinson put it best: "Whatever you can say about India, the opposite is equally true". That quote came to mind while reading this.
All of what you say is true, but so are its opposites. (1) Even at the height of Modi's popularity, he has never won 50% of the middle class vote. (2) True that the middle class does not get fussed about farmers, unemployment, etc -- but equally true that of late, inflation has begun to hurt them, and this has triggered a shift in voting patterns. Not a seismic shift, true, but Modi *has* begun to lose a measure of previously unquestioned middle class support. (3) True about the anti-Muslim hate -- but equally true that in this recent election, when that hate was ramped up to levels never thought of before, the BJP actually lost ground, and seats, in those constituencies where hate was maximised. (4) True about Chinese incursions, but equally true that the "strongman" aura surrounding Modi has begun to deflate a bit among the middle class as well. And so on. As I mentioned in response to another comment here -- there is change, but as happened during the election cycle, that change is so imperceptible, and the propaganda machinery still so active, that it is not easily perceived. (I was thinking of a piece I wrote about a wave rising in the North -- it was an undercurrent, not readily seen, but it was there. When I wrote it, I got slammed for it in mails, and not always polite ones either, but the wave was there, and it washed away the BJP in parts of the country it had never expected to face problems in. Same difference happening now -- look below the surface.)
And finally, this: the growing discomfort among sections of the middle class is real; the shift away from the BJP is marginal, but also real. Whether the BJP can reverse the trend before it becomes a butter slide depends on its ability to manager the economy -- and the one thing I am sure about is that the party has a serious talent deficit in that (and other) area. If the economy keeps going down this inflationary path, if prices keep rising, if taxes and tolls keep increasing -- all of which I am sure will happen -- then that shift will gather momentum.
Joan Robinson is right, but the trouble is the opposite is not true in equal measure, and therefore it takes time and patience which finds utterance only once in five years in our Democracy. In Modi's case it is true that the shine has faded though not enough to dislodge him. He has anyway secured his legacy on the strength of his 15years tenure.His ego would be satiated,I hope.
Hope your views fortify further on the ground.Afterall the country is more important than the individual
"Time and patience" is exactly my point. We've been under the pump for so long, that the election results are being seen as "we have finally turned the corner". Not yet we haven't -- what we have actually done is begun turning the steering wheel, and with a country of our size and complexity, the actual turn takes a long time. I remember using the analogy of turning an ocean liner, in one of my responses today -- big ships don't turn on a dime. All I do, personally, is keep an eye on the signs -- if all or most of them point in one direction, I'm willing to wait; if they don't, I begin to think we are in deep trouble. Thus far, the majority of signs I see points the right way, so I'll wait, and watch.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
WLS Churchill in 1942 after Rommel's defeat.
Much as I abhor the man, this is one of my go to quotes :-)
A significant number is viscerally afraid of losing to the minorities. No matter what the hardship they need to endure, this support base shows no sign of withering. Hence, the growth space for liberal thinking is limited in the foreseeable future. Undoubtedly, some state elections will go against the current dispensation, but at the center, reason has to work very hard and wait patiently to flower.
This, as with all things India, is partly true. True that there is a hard core of the committed who are afraid of losing part of their power to minorities -- and not just Muslims either, though Muslims are a handy strawman for propaganda purposes. That base will stay strongly committed, and any and all attempts to convert sizeable numbers of them are a waste of time and effort.
The key, though, is what lies outside of that base. Generously estimate that core at 40%. In reality it is more in the range of 25-28%, with the balance being not ideologically committed, but buying into the TINA factor -- that is the section that swung marginally away from the parivar and was responsible for how the BJP lost out big time in the heartland. But even if you go with the more generous estimate, the battle is for the other 60%.
Till date, the Congress has been unable to garner even half that electorate -- that is, make sure of 30%. What has changed is the mindset shift -- finally, the Congress has woken up to the importance of regional parties, and the necessity to let regional parties lead in states where they are strong (DMK in TN, SP in UP, RJD in Bihar, Uddhav Sena and Pawar NCP in Maharashtra, JMM in Jharkhand and so on. These parties reach beyond the Congress vote cluster -- and that is where, and why, the game turned. And from what I know, that template, which has the Congress playing junior partner in many states, has now been accepted as de facto by the Congress *and* the regional leaders.
Agree that change at the Centre is going to be a very long process and will require much patience and persistent plodding -- but for now, winning states is (and in my opinion, should be) the strategy. Each state lost inverses the BJP's claim as the largest national party; more importantly, the BJP loses control over state administrations, and that control has always been its key to success at the national level.
Optimistic Prem at his best! We need you to keep us ticking. I agree that the upcoming state election results have the capability to significantly moderate the effects of the Lok Sabha mandate - significant loss will further worsen the effects of adverse LS results for the ruling party and winning a state like MH will mitigate the adverse results of LS. Noticed this from an “ally” within NDA:
READ: End practice of quota seats becoming ‘un-reserved’, check growing ‘aakrosh’: Union MoS to Yogi
https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/quota-seats-becoming-un-reserved-union-mos-letter-to-yogi-adityanath-9421440/
Wonder if such small events are going to cumulatively bring more impact from coalition politics than big bang stuff. Would Apna Dal have dared to write such letters under full majority? Or is it just the run of the mill politics?
I think it was Edward Lear who wrote: "Between optimist and pessimist, the difference is droll/One sees the doughnut, the other sees the hole."
I'd prefer to think of myself as a realist, actually. I see -- okay, try to see -- the whole board, not just the parts that suit my preconceived notions. Funnily enough, so do you: You just pointed out a story on Apna Dal's letter to the UP CM which, as you yourself point out, is a sign that lesser allies now feel themselves more empowered than at any time since 2014. (Note also, for instance, that as the direction of the wind became clear even in the early stages of the election cycle, Haryana witnessed a political churn that has put the ruling BJP on a knife edge; note also the collapse of the alliance with Chautala's JJP.
To return to where you started, I am no optimist in the sense that I don't see signs of dramatic change in the immediate future -- it's like these massive ocean liners, you can't turn a nation around on a dime. But the realist in me says that the NDA is no longer in a position to ram dangerous bills through Parliament just because it can, or to effectively install a dictatorial regime under a thinly veiled pretence at democracy. That's a start, and it is early days. So.
Also check this out. Yesterday marked day 423 since the ethnic conflict began in Manipur. This week, the president of the state unit of the BJP came to Delhi to meet Amit Shah and ask that he urgently find a solution to the crisis. A day later, seven MLAs belonging to the BJP and its ally the Naga People's Front landed in Delhi with the same demand. No one from the ruling party bothered with the crisis for the better part of 420 days -- now, suddenly, widespread concern in the ruling party. Why? Because the election results are telling them that people -- both Meiteis and Kukis -- have turned away from the party.
We want change to happen overnight, but it rarely does. The thing to do is keep an eye on the subtle shifts in direction. And there are shifts -- this is not me being optimistic :-)
Prem, if my earlier post came across as suggesting that yours is misplaced optimism, my apologies. That wasn’t my intention. Realism is perhaps more apt. As I indicated, cumulative effects of small changes is what will likely turn things around, at least initially, rather than dramatic events. In fact, even a change in regime is unlikely to lead to dramatic shifts in the lives of many ordinary folks - we have to fight for more fundamental changes in governance for that to happen. It’s a really long game given where we are run now.
Oh no, not at all -- I didn't take it that way, no worries. And yes -- there are times when seismic change is required (PVN Rao led us through one such period), but most times, institutions and countries progress through doing lots of little things right.
I pity the president. She doesn’t inspire in me the respect her position deserves. Her only qualification seems to be to make Ramnath Kovind more qualified. I hope she knows that what reads will not be attributed to her.
Regarding election and the mandate of the citizens, at the brass tag level nothing appears to have changed. Still the Sha-di regime has managed to impose its choices. The leader has been thrusted upon the parliament, ignoring all traditions of procedures; no change in the cabinet – telling the public that all ministers have done a worthy job; maintaining the same house monitors whose records are well known for all the see. I don’t know what the empowered opposition will be able to achieve, they can debate all they want, but the rulers will make all the decisions in the way they have been accustomed to, as per their agenda. Sorry to be pessimistic, but I am looking towards a day when justice will get served, which doesn’t appear to be in the horizon.
One of the achievements of this government was touted to be the growth in infrastructure, but sadly that polish is wearing thin.
One point I should have made in the piece: By convention, the President's address is written by the government of the day; he or she merely reads out what is written. This is true of Governors too. My problem is not that she read out the speech given to her, my problem is that she allowed herself to mouth lies. She is the President, she has the right to contest what is written and ask for changes, or refuse to read any part that she is not comfortable with (a case in point is, say, TN Governor Ravi, who had a face off with the DMK over his refusal. to read a section of an address written for him).
If your idea of change is a dramatic and sudden reversal of established NDA norms, that is not going to happen. But change IS happening -- as I pointed out in my piece, the government even in these early days is on the defensive, and that is something I could not have said any time in the past ten years. The first real test is not who makes up the Cabinet -- that is the privilege of the party in power, and they used it to make some obscure point by bringing back the same faces. The real test is when the government looks to table the first controversial bill of its third term -- and I suspect you will see signs of change when that happens, and also in the next session when the Budget is tabled.
As to infrastructure, "touted to be" is right -- the supposed infrastructure is more hype than substance. One example is growth in highway construction. Never mind the quality, even the measure is wrong. Under UPA, a mile of highway, irrespective of the number of lanes, was still a mile (okay, km). So if they constructed one km of a six lane highway it counted as one km. Under the NDA, they changed the measure -- now, one km of a six lane highway counts as six km, not one.
Or take railways. We are supposed to have moved into modernity with Vande Bharat. Says who? Those trains are still running on old infrastructure -- and the problem with that is showing. About a week ago, there was a news story about the Railways reducing the speed of a slew of VB trains "to ensure safety". Think of what that actually means -- these are supposed to be superfast trains in theory, but now they are reduced to the same speed as the Shatabdis et al. And in the process, there is less investment in regular trains, leading to severe over-crowding; there is less investment in maintenance, leading to increasing incidences of accidents.
This is true across the board -- the NDA merely changes the way something is measured to make itself look good. The problem is us -- we take what we are told without questioning.
Thanks for elaborating on my cryptic comment.
Ravi at least knows his audience of one - motabhai. I'm not sure Murmu knows her audience - citizens, parliament members or the script writer.
About this government's data - metrics are decided by what works for PR, not what is universally accepted.
Welcome back Prem. Hope your brief hiatus was good. Reading your essays is always great. Yours is the most balanced view on Indian politics. I stopped watching Barkha or Faye some time ago, as I discovered Hindi Youtube channels or a Meghnerd or Manisha Pande offering better insight, especially Hindi channels such as TCH, DB Live, The Public India, etc. The journos are from the Hindi hearland and their reading of politics is just fascinating to hear. Of course it's like an echo chamber I admit as they're critical of the 56" ki sarkar, but also critical of Rahul Gandhi, INC etc. For instance now the alternative media people are asking a pertinent question - why is RaGa afraid of the word Muslim? When will he, as Leader of Oppn talk about bulldozer raj and our Muslim brethren. So it's really nice and insightful to read your take in the midst of all this. Your keen observations are food for thought. And yes Modi 3.0 is really 2.1 Beta version. Not much seems to have changed with them, and yet Parliament has. With new Penal laws now known as unpronounceable Bharat Nyay Sanhita and 2 others and the Broadcast Bill coming into force, sometimes you wonder, what exactly did we vote for if not change and hope and freedom and respect? Anyway, sorry my comment is almost as long as your essay, apologies. Glad to have you back.
Two points here. To address the first: Yes, the alternative journalists, for want of a better word, are in a sense a part of their own echo chamber. Or to put it differently, they have their biases. Question is, who doesn't? I am biased -- in favour of truth, of justice, of fairness, decency, etc. These are the prisms through which I view contemporary events (and, I suspect, this is true for the Ravish Kumars of this world as well). This "bias" means that when you find those norms flouted, you question it -- and it doesn't matter who does the flouting. To simplify: the journalists you name and others like them have questioned the Congress with equal heat, both when the party was in power, and when it was/is in Opposition (and so have I, by the way).
That is the point of journalism, really -- not being free of bias, but of being aware of what you are biased in favour of, and against.
As to the Muslim question, I don't think it is a question of aversion to the community, so much as a matter of timing. Muslims have been under the pump for a long time now -- the reason the question of RaGa's (and the Opposition's) silence is coming up now is that with its numerical strength increased, we expect more from the Opposition now, than we did any time these past ten years. My belief is that the issue will become big; I don't yet know enough to have a comment on what the Opposition thinking on timing is, though.
As for "we all voted" -- yes, we did, but not in sufficient numbers to tilt the scales clearly in the direction of freedom and justice. It is a fractured verdict -- we the people cut the BJP down to size, undercut its monarchical ambitions, and strengthened the Opposition. But the verdict was not decisive enough, either way. Hopefully, we will learn.
Yes, hopefully. That 4-letter word that gives us something to cling to. Like amid a crumbling country (literally, more than figuratively, if you look at our cities under siege, airports falling apart, trains colliding, roads cracking up), it seems we are living in a dystopian sci-fi movie, there's India winning the really short version of the game called cricket. Maybe we are - I do remember Layla, an eerily prescient series based on the book by the same name. If you haven't watched it, please do. It could have been made better, but it does make you wonder. I wonder what the right wing zealots will feel if we say Bhaarat, Bhaaarat....Bhaaarat, Bhaarat...it sounds odd to me, but then India is an anglicized name...ha ha ha...oh the things we need to wrap our heads around. Have a fantastic Sunday!
The more things change the more they remain the same. A tiger, even a wounded one, cannot change its stripes. This dispensation will find new ways of doing the same old things. It is upto the opposition now to decide how to play the game.
Because what else do they have? I suspect the Opposition has got a handle on things now, though. They will stumble occasionally - it's not easy to find your groove after ten years of inaction. But if all I am hearing is true, they are getting a good grip on this.
Welcome back. We missed you and your writing !
Thanks much. Was wondering if rust had set in. 😊
Lovely articulation in the first paragraph.
😏 Thank you.