Knocking on the nuclear door...

An in-depth analysis of the recent Indo-Pak conflict

Christopher Clary, an associate professor of political science at the University of Albany and the author of The Difficult Politics of Peace: Rivalry in Modern South Asia, has produced the most in-depth analysis of the recent Indo-Pak conflict that I have come across. Read it — it merits your time and attention. For quick reference purposes, here are the key takeaways:

Military Firsts and Innovations

• India used Cruise missiles (BrahMos, SCALP-EG) for the first time against Pakistan.

• Pakistan used short-range ballistic missiles (Fatah-I, Fatah-II) and armed drones in unprecedented numbers.

• Drone warfare entered the India-Pakistan dynamic for the first time with both offensive and defensive drone operations.

• The conflict highlighted the growing use of standoff precision weapons, anti-radiation drones, and decoys.

• India's air and missile defense systems, including the S-400, played a key role in neutralizing attacks.

Tactical Outcomes

• India demonstrated air superiority through standoff strikes across Pakistan, with fewer observable setbacks.

• Pakistan likely downed several Indian aircraft on May 7, possibly using Chinese systems like the HQ-9 and PL-15.

• Indian retaliation, especially on May 9–10, hit deep into Pakistani territory, including near sensitive military zones.

• Pakistani drone and missile strikes inflicted little visible damage; India’s layered defenses proved effective.

Kashmir Escalation and Ground Combat

• Intense artillery, mortar, and small arms fire returned to the Line of Control in Kashmir, causing most of the conflict’s casualties (50-plus deaths).

• There was no attempt by either side to redraw the LoC or seize posts, indicating escalation control.

The Fog of War and Misinformation

• Massive disinformation from both sides blurred facts, though India was more restrained publicly.

• Social media, nationalistic press, and opaque military briefings obscured real damage assessments and intent.

A consensus on what truly happened remains elusive and is key to crisis learning.

Strategic and Political Lessons

• Both sides showed calibrated escalation, but occasionally misread each other’s actions leading to unintended reactions.

• Nuclear signaling was subdued despite the presence of nuclear forces.

• The crisis will likely accelerate future military acquisitions, especially in drone and missile defense domains.

U.S. Role in de-escalation

• The United States played the central diplomatic role, particularly through high-level engagement by Secretary Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

• Crisis diplomacy helped broker a ceasefire on May 10. Pakistan may have accepted it before fully assessing the impact of its final attacks.

• The “Rubio offer” of future talks was phrased to suit both sides, though India denied any agreement beyond the ceasefire.

Why This Conflict Matters

• It is a rare case of serious hostilities between nuclear states, offering insights into modern conventional conflict under the nuclear shadow.

• The conflict is strategically significant for global observers, especially in evaluating the performance of Chinese-origin weapons (J-10, HQ-9, PL-15).

• It provides a template for future India-Pakistan crises, with higher stakes, shorter reaction times, and more complex escalation paths.

Overall: The ‘Four-Day Conflict’ was a technologically sophisticated, politically controlled, and diplomatically resolved near-war. But the fog of war, compounded by deliberate obfuscation, means that truth is still opaque and continues to be contested — and next time, if there is a next time, the ladder of escalation could be climbed faster and further.

Again — don’t go by the synopsis; read the full document, it is worth your while.